Kolumnen & Analysen - Archiv Phil Flynn I PFGBEST
The Energy Report - The Buck stops
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 10.09.2010
President Truman used to have a sigh on his desk that the buck stops here. President Obama should have one that says the buck stops with the last administration. If you are going to solve the problem you have to admit you have a problem yet the entire Democratic Party is lost in this sense of what I would call arrogant denial. In fact in some cases it is downright scary. Did anyone see that interview with Harry Reid that sad that he had nothing to do with the bad economy? ... mehr
The Buck stops
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 10.09.2010
The Energy Report Friday September 10, 2010.
President Truman used to have a sigh on his desk that the buck stops here. President Obama should have one that says the buck stops with the last administration. If you are going to solve the problem you have to admit you have a problem yet the entire Democratic Party is lost in this sense of what I would call arrogant denial. In fact in some cases it is downright scary. Did anyone see that interview with Harry Reid that sad that he had nothing to do with the bad economy? ... mehr
One Bad Auction Don’t Spoil the Whole Bunch Girl
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 09.09.2010
The Energy Report Thursday September 9, 2010
One Bad Auction Don’t Spoil the Whole Bunch Girl. Yet at the same time one good auction does not solve all of Europe’s problems either. The Portugal bond auction may have eased concerns regarding a total global market meltdown but them Beige Book and dismal demand numbers from the MasterCard Spending Pulse report as well as a downward revision to the demand outlook from the Energy Information Agency has oil traders questioning about the strength of future demand growth the total oil demand growth outlook. ... mehr
The Energy Report - One Bad Auction Don’t Spoil the Whole Bunch Girl
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 09.09.2010
One Bad Auction Don’t Spoil the Whole Bunch Girl. Yet at the same time one good auction does not solve all of Europe’s problems either. The Portugal bond auction may have eased concerns regarding a total global market meltdown but them Beige Book and dismal demand numbers from the MasterCard Spending Pulse report as well as a downward revision to the demand outlook from the Energy Information Agency has oil traders questioning about the strength of future demand growth the total oil demand growth outlook. ... mehr
When Irish Bonds Are Crying
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 08.09.2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Remember the European financial crisis? Sure you do! You remember I know you do. It was when Greece looked like it hit the skids and it appeared they were headed for default! And worries surrounded countries with the acronym PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) were ready to go over the edge! The stock market was crashing and oil prices were plunging and it looked like we were getting ready for a major global market meltdown. ... mehr
The Energy Report - When Irish Bonds Are Crying
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 08.09.2010
Remember the European financial crisis? Sure you do! You remember I know you do. It was when Greece looked like it hit the skids and it appeared they were headed for default! And worries surrounded countries with the acronym PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) were ready to go over the edge! The stock market was crashing and oil prices were plunging and it looked like we were getting ready for a major global market meltdown. But then when all was nearly lost, ... mehr
The Energy Report - Demand Jam
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 07.09.2010
Will disappointing holiday demand be the story or will a new wave of economic optimism generated by last week’s better than expected jobs report make the headlines? Companies did add more jobs than expected as non-farm private payrolls actually rose by 67,000. Forget that Chicken Little maybe the sky isn’t falling after all but with jobs still far from a pace that will get us back to normal I don’t think that there is reason to celebrate. I think the market may slip into a negative mode. Did the Labor Day holiday bail us out on the demand side? ... mehr
Demand Jam
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 07.09.2010
Will disappointing holiday demand be the story or will a new wave of economic optimism generated by last week’s better than expected jobs report make the headlines? Companies did add more jobs than expected as non-farm private payrolls actually rose by 67,000. Forget that Chicken Little maybe the sky isn’t falling after all but with jobs still far from a pace that will get us back to normal I don’t think that there is reason to celebrate. I think the market may slip into a negative mode. Did the Labor Day holiday bail us out on the demand side? ... mehr
Welcome To September!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 03.09.2010
The Energy Report for Friday, September 3, 2010
Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Welcome To September!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 03.09.2010
Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about. ... mehr
ISM Into The Wild Blue Yonder Flying High Into The Sky
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 02.09.2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, September 2, 2010
Where the heck did that come from? The Institute for Supply Management gave the market just what the doctor ordered with a shocking good reading on manufacturing. Why was it so shocking?
Well some of the regional manufacturing reports like the Philly Fed and the Empire State numbers were so lousy. Maybe the Chicago Purchasing Manger report should have given a clue but instead of lousy we go the first increase in four months with an expansive jump to 56.3, ... mehr
The Energy Report - ISM Into The Wild Blue Yonder Flying High Into The Sky
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 02.09.2010
Where the heck did that come from? The Institute for Supply Management gave the market just what the doctor ordered with a shocking good reading on manufacturing. Why was it so shocking?
Well some of the regional manufacturing reports like the Philly Fed and the Empire State numbers were so lousy. Maybe the Chicago Purchasing Manger report should have given a clue but instead of lousy we go the first increase in four months with an expansive jump to 56.3, ... mehr
Earl, The Grinch That Stole Labor Day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 01.09.2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Earl, the Grinch that Stole Labor Day. All of the Who’s down in Whoville may be safe but it seems Hurricane Earl is bent on washing out and stealing their Labor Day fun! The holiday weekend may wash away for many states up and down the East coast. As Hurricane Earl barrels down it will bring a crashing end to the summer gasoline demand season that was already not up to par with market expectations. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Earl, The Grinch That Stole Labor Day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 01.09.2010
Earl, the Grinch that Stole Labor Day. All of the Who’s down in Whoville may be safe but it seems Hurricane Earl is bent on washing out and stealing their Labor Day fun! The holiday weekend may wash away for many states up and down the East coast. As Hurricane Earl barrels down it will bring a crashing end to the summer gasoline demand season that was already not up to par with market expectations. ... mehr
The Energy Report - The Hurricane Threat!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 31.08.2010
The Hurricane Threat! Many oil traders when they think about the impact of hurricanes on the oil market most often focus on the threat to supply. Yet the truth is more often than not hurricanes are more of a threat to demand then they are to supply. That is definitely the case when it comes to Hurricane Earl, not to mention tropical storm Fiona, Hurricane Danielle and a storm to be named later. Earl in particular could do major demand destruction as its path is perilously close to the East Coast. ... mehr
The Hurricane Threat!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 31.08.2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Hurricane Threat! Many oil traders when they think about the impact of hurricanes on the oil market most often focus on the threat to supply. Yet the truth is more often than not hurricanes are more of a threat to demand then they are to supply. That is definitely the case when it comes to Hurricane Earl, not to mention tropical storm Fiona, Hurricane Danielle and a storm to be named later. ... mehr
Big Bad Ben!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 30.08.2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 30, 2010
Big Bad Ben! Commodity bears be on notice: Ben is coming to run that big bad deflation out of town. Ben Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed will step up if prices go down. Those words should bring comfort to commodity bulls that have been under assault from an array of weakening economic indicators. That worn out song “for an extended period” may change to "forever and a life time" and the Fed stands at the ready by the printing presses ready to print at a moment’s notice if price fall too far. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Big Bad Ben!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 30.08.2010
Big Bad Ben! Commodity bears be on notice: Ben is coming to run that big bad deflation out of town. Ben Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed will step up if prices go down. Those words should bring comfort to commodity bulls that have been under assault from an array of weakening economic indicators. That worn out song “for an extended period” may change to "forever and a life time" and the Fed stands at the ready by the printing presses ready to print at a moment’s notice if price fall too far. ... mehr
When Bad News Becomes Good News
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 26.08.2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, August 26, 2010
When bad news becomes good news: Oh sure the economic data did not get any better. New homes sales were a disaster and the Energy Information Agency report was very bearish yet the good news is that a lot of the bad news was already priced in. Now doesn’t that make you feel better? Yes things are lousy but as bad as they are at this point in time we actually priced in that things were even worse! Yippee!! Time to celebrate! Forget that doom and gloom of Tuesday. Now its doom and zoom as the market tries to tell itself hey nothing can be that bad! Can it? Well I hate to be a bummer but it can. ... mehr
The Energy Report - When Bad News Becomes Good News
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 26.08.2010
When bad news becomes good news: Oh sure the economic data did not get any better. New homes sales were a disaster and the Energy Information Agency report was very bearish yet the good news is that a lot of the bad news was already priced in. Now doesn’t that make you feel better? Yes things are lousy but as bad as they are at this point in time we actually priced in that things were even worse! Yippee!! Time to celebrate! Forget that doom and gloom of Tuesday. Now its doom and zoom as the market tries to tell itself hey nothing can be that bad! Can it? Well I hate to be a bummer but it can. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Still We Look To Find A Reason To Believe
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 25.08.2010
Still we look to find a reason to believe. If I listened long enough to you, a bullish case I guess you could make do, knowing that supplies are high worldwide. Still I look to find a reason to believe. The bulls need something to believe in as a plunge in existing homes sales is another dagger in the heart of the bullish case.
The drop caught many by surprise as the existing home sales hit the lowest level since 1995 and fell by a whopping 27.2%.
The stock market and oil market already rattled about recent economic happenings, had a hard time shaking off the number as the mood turned gloomy. ... mehr
Still We Look To Find A Reason To Believe
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 25.08.2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Still we look to find a reason to believe. If I listened long enough to you, a bullish case I guess you could make do, knowing that supplies are high worldwide. Still I look to find a reason to believe. The bulls need something to believe in as a plunge in existing homes sales is another dagger in the heart of the bullish case.
The drop caught many by surprise as the existing home sales hit the lowest level since 1995 and fell by a whopping 27.2%. ... mehr
Dancing With Wolves
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 24.08.2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Dancing with wolves: You know every once in a while someone defines what you have been trying to say and does it a way that is clear and concise and in terms so clear that you have to say yes, that is exactly what I have been trying to say. For months I have been telling you that despite the fact that I am long term bearish on oil I felt the better way to play this market was not to be married to either a dogmatically bull or bear position but to take advantage of the ranges. I said don’t be a hero, oil is making wide swings. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Dancing With Wolves
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 24.08.2010
Dancing with wolves: You know every once in a while someone defines what you have been trying to say and does it a way that is clear and concise and in terms so clear that you have to say yes, that is exactly what I have been trying to say. For months I have been telling you that despite the fact that I am long term bearish on oil I felt the better way to play this market was not to be married to either a dogmatically bull or bear position but to take advantage of the ranges. I said don’t be a hero, oil is making wide swings. ... mehr
The Energy Report - All The News That Did Not Happen
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 23.08.2010
I guess before we start to talk about all news that might drive energy trading, let’s talk about the factors that many of you thought might drive the market this week but did not. I heard from some that they thought that this weekend Israel would bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Did not happen.
Others were worried that the market would be impacted by what is now tropical storm Danielle. ... mehr
All The News That Did Not Happen
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 23.08.2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 23, 2010
I guess before we start to talk about all news that might drive energy trading, let’s talk about the factors that many of you thought might drive the market this week but did not. I heard from some that they thought that this weekend Israel would bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Did not happen.
Others were worried that the market would be impacted by what is now tropical storm Danielle. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Slip Sliding Away, Slip Sliding Away
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 20.08.2010
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away. You know the nearer your destination the more you're slip sliding away and away we go. The economic recovery is slip sliding away as the market starts to brace for a potential double dip as US data goes sour. When the jobless claims came out much higher than expected and the Philly Fed flopped, instead of an economic recovery being nearer to its destination, the more it's slip sliding away. Weekly claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000 and the Philly Fed went into the abyss falling to minus 7.7 for August contracting for the first time since July 2009. ... mehr
Slip Sliding Away, Slip Sliding Away
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 20.08.2010
The Energy Report for Friday, August 20, 2010
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away. You know the nearer your destination the more you're slip sliding away and away we go. The economic recovery is slip sliding away as the market starts to brace for a potential double dip as US data goes sour. When the jobless claims came out much higher than expected and the Philly Fed flopped, instead of an economic recovery being nearer to its destination, the more it's slip sliding away. ... mehr
The Energy Report - A 27 Year High
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 19.08.2010
A 27 year high. Sure oil prices and petroleum prices rebounded after the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency week over week numbers we not quite as bearish as the American Petroleum Institute report. And yes, oil rebounded as the stock market became positive. Yet there was something lost when we looked at only the daily factors. Did anyone step back and ponder that the total U.S. inventory of oil and all petroleum products hit a 27 year high according to the EIA?
Now just stop and think where the price of oil was 27 years ago and what kind of world we lived in 1983. ... mehr
The Energy Report - A 27 Year High
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 19.08.2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, August 19, 2010
A 27 year high. Sure oil prices and petroleum prices rebounded after the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency week over week numbers we not quite as bearish as the American Petroleum Institute report. And yes, oil rebounded as the stock market became positive. Yet there was something lost when we looked at only the daily factors. Did anyone step back and ponder that the total U.S. inventory of oil and all petroleum products hit a 27 year high according to the EIA? ... mehr
The Energy Report - One Hundred Barrels Of Oil On The Wall
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 18.08.2010
One hundred barrels of oil on the wall, one hundred barrels of oil. You take one down and pass it around and um, now you have, hum, oops! I lost track. Remember that old sing song we sang on the school bus that when on and on until you just lost count! Well that’s kind of like our recent inventory reports.
Take the American Petroleum Institute report that showed that US crude supply surged by a whopping 5.87 million barrels. ... mehr
One Hundred Barrels Of Oil On The Wall
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 18.08.2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 18, 2010
One hundred barrels of oil on the wall, one hundred barrels of oil. You take one down and pass it around and um, now you have, hum, oops! I lost track. Remember that old sing song we sang on the school bus that when on and on until you just lost count! Well that’s kind of like our recent inventory reports.
Take the American Petroleum Institute report that showed that US crude supply surged by a whopping 5.87 million barrels. ... mehr
Fear Versus Reality
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 17.08.2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Last the Federal Reserve lowered their expectations for economic growth and let the world know that it was going to reinvest its cash from maturing mortgage debt holdings into treasuries, keeping the size of its balance sheet stable and avoiding what could have been perceived as a tightening of monetary policy. Somehow the market panicked over this. We saw the markets react with fear and the trade went to risk aversion mode. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Fear Versus Reality
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 17.08.2010
Last the Federal Reserve lowered their expectations for economic growth and let the world know that it was going to reinvest its cash from maturing mortgage debt holdings into treasuries, keeping the size of its balance sheet stable and avoiding what could have been perceived as a tightening of monetary policy. Somehow the market panicked over this. We saw the markets react with fear and the trade went to risk aversion mode. At first the commodities rallied and the dollar broke as the market felt that the reinvestment, ... mehr
As Oil Prices Hit The Lowest Levels Since July 19th
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 16.08.2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 16, 2010
As oil prices hit the lowest levels since July 19th people are starting to realize something I have been saying for a very long time and that is, the price of oil is not acting on its own but is being driven by outside macro-economic forces. I have said time and time again that the price of oil really has been acting as a pawn in the economic recovery and is being driven in large part by economic forces. When the Fed prints more money and the dollar falls and the stock market rises then oil rallies. ... mehr
The Energy Report - As Oil Prices Hit The Lowest Levels Since July 19th
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 16.08.2010
As oil prices hit the lowest levels since July 19th people are starting to realize something I have been saying for a very long time and that is, the price of oil is not acting on its own but is being driven by outside macro-economic forces. I have said time and time again that the price of oil really has been acting as a pawn in the economic recovery and is being driven in large part by economic forces. When the Fed prints more money and the dollar falls and the stock market rises then oil rallies. ... mehr
The Energy Report - 19th Market Breakdown
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 13.08.2010
The Energy Report for Friday, August 13, 2010
Ben’s the kind of person you meet at certain dismal, dull affairs, center of the crowd, talking much too, stirring' up the bulls and the bears. Well it seems to me that you have seen too much in too few years and though you try you just can't hide your eyes are edged with fears, you better stop and look around, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here comes your 19th market breakdown. ... mehr
The Energy Report - 19th Market Breakdown
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 13.08.2010
Ben’s the kind of person you meet at certain dismal, dull affairs, center of the crowd, talking much too, stirring' up the bulls and the bears. Well it seems to me that you have seen too much in too few years and though you try you just can't hide your eyes are edged with fears, you better stop and look around, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here comes your 19th market breakdown.
Oh, who's to blame, that market's just insane? Well nothing Ben does don't seem to work It only seems to make matters worse. ... mehr
Peg Through My Heart!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 12.08.2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, August 12, 2010
Peg through my heart! The Chinese central bank worried about a sharp slowdown as the country took steps to reignite their softening export market. The Peoples Bank of China, according to the Wall Street Journal, set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at a seven-week high following the U.S. dollar's broad strength against most major currencies overnight amid concerns about a weakening global economic recovery. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Peg Through My Heart!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 12.08.2010
Peg through my heart! The Chinese central bank worried about a sharp slowdown as the country took steps to reignite their softening export market. The Peoples Bank of China, according to the Wall Street Journal, set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at a seven-week high following the U.S. dollar's broad strength against most major currencies overnight amid concerns about a weakening global economic recovery. The move had the yuan drop sharply against other major currencies and may draw attention from China’s critics that the move will give China a continued unfair trade advantage. ... mehr
You Don’t Belive We Are On The Eve Of Demand Destruction
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 11.08.2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tell me over and over and over again my friend! You don’t belive we are on the eve of demand destruction! The last time I honored the 1965 Barry Maguire classic “Eve of Destruction”, oil was hurling towards $147 a barrel and I said that there is no way that this rapid rise would not cause demand destruction and damage to the economy. What followed was the biggest drop in demand in the history of the global oil markets. ... mehr
You Don’t Belive We Are On The Eve Of Demand Destruction
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 11.08.2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tell me over and over and over again my friend! You don’t belive we are on the eve of demand destruction! The last time I honored the 1965 Barry Maguire classic “Eve of Destruction”, oil was hurling towards $147 a barrel and I said that there is no way that this rapid rise would not cause demand destruction and damage to the economy. What followed was the biggest drop in demand in the history of the global oil markets. ... mehr
If At First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try Again!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 10.08.2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 10, 2010
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again! It’s Fed Day and the global energy markets are waiting to find out whether or not the Fed is going to boost the markets with another shot of quantitative easing. Speculation is swirling that the Fed, desperate to knock the malaise out of the economy, will double down on its policy and flood the economy with even more printed money. ... mehr
The Energy Report - If At First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try Again!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 10.08.2010
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again! It’s Fed Day and the global energy markets are waiting to find out whether or not the Fed is going to boost the markets with another shot of quantitative easing. Speculation is swirling that the Fed, desperate to knock the malaise out of the economy, will double down on its policy and flood the economy with even more printed money. This is a far cry from expectations just a few weeks ago when the Fed was widely expected to reduce their balance sheet as they were set to collect 100 to 180 billion dollars in profit from its Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) it took over in the heat of the financial crisis. ... mehr
What Is The Poor Fed Going To Do Now?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 09.08.2010
The Energy Report Monday August 9, 2010
What is the poor Fed going to do now? Despite the Fed best efforts the Jobs report was a dismal reminder that the economy and commodity prices still need some help. As nonfarm payrolls fell by a larger-than-expected 131,000 last month the odds that the FED instead of reducing its balance sheet and hang onto some of that paper money that they created out of thin air will instead begin to reinvest that money or put it back out in the market place. The goal is to try to inspire some type of economic enterprise. ... mehr
The Energy Report - What Is The Poor Fed Going To Do Now?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 09.08.2010
What is the poor Fed going to do now? Despite the Fed best efforts the Jobs report was a dismal reminder that the economy and commodity prices still need some help. As nonfarm payrolls fell by a larger-than-expected 131,000 last month the odds that the FED instead of reducing its balance sheet and hang onto some of that paper money that they created out of thin air will instead begin to reinvest that money or put it back out in the market place. ... mehr
Oil, Wheat, And Global Economic Games
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 06.08.2010
The Energy Report for Friday, August 6, 2010
Are you looking for an exit strategy from the historic amount of economic stimulus and quantitative easing that has dominated global stock and commodity markets? Well look no further than Europe. While we here in the United States are raising the possibility of more quantitative easing and more ways to stimulate the economy, the President of the European Central Bank Jean Claude Trichet is sending signals he is looking for a way out. Yes, I know. It’s crazy! ... mehr
The Energy Report - Oil, Wheat, And Global Economic Games
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 06.08.2010
Are you looking for an exit strategy from the historic amount of economic stimulus and quantitative easing that has dominated global stock and commodity markets? Well look no further than Europe. While we here in the United States are raising the possibility of more quantitative easing and more ways to stimulate the economy, the President of the European Central Bank Jean Claude Trichet is sending signals he is looking for a way out. Yes, I know. It’s crazy!
The EU and its three freaking pillars were on the verge of crumbling into pillars of dust just months ago. ... mehr
Feeling The Heat
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 05.08.2010
The Energy Report Thursday August 5, 2010
Feeling the Heat, despite the weak dollar and a mixed Energy Information Agency report oil bulls are still feeling the heat of heavy global supply. As Mark Shenk at Bloomberg News pointed out we have record oil stockpiles in the Midwest or Padd2 and that is “reducing the premium traders will pay for later deliveries amid signs that fuel demand may be ebbing as the pace of the economic recovery slows. ... mehr
The Energy Report - Feeling The Heat
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - ltfutures - 05.08.2010
Feeling the Heat, despite the weak dollar and a mixed Energy Information Agency report oil bulls are still feeling the heat of heavy global supply. As Mark Shenk at Bloomberg News pointed out we have record oil stockpiles in the Midwest or Padd2 and that is “reducing the premium traders will pay for later deliveries amid signs that fuel demand may be ebbing as the pace of the economic recovery slows. Bloomberg says that “Inventories in the 15-state region that includes Illinois rose to 97.7 million barrels in the week ended July 30, the highest level recorded since the data started in 1990, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. ... mehr
Aktuelle Kolumnen & Analysen
Bonds Weekly: Bund-Future leitet Seitwärtsbewegung ein - „Beige Book“ bestätigt moderates Wachstum in den USA
Börse Stuttgart - Bonds - 10.09.2010
Rentenreport der Börse Stuttgart KW 36 (06.09. bis 10.09.2010)
Wie in der Vorwoche haben in den vergangenen Tagen über den Erwartungen liegende Konjunkturdaten aus den USA für einen zunehmenden Geldstrom in die Aktienmärkte gesorgt. Der Bund-Future konsolidiert deshalb auf hohem Niveau.
Aufgrund des Feiertages "Labor Day" blieben die US-Börsen am Montag geschlossen. Deshalb plätscherte auch der Handel in Europa ruhig dahin. ... mehr
Euwax-Trends am Nachmittag: Gerüchte belasten Deutsche-Bank-Aktie - Börsianer spekulieren über milliardenschwere Kapitalerhöhung
Börse Stuttgart - Indizes - 10.09.2010
Deutliche Kursverluste der Deutsche-Bank-Aktie zogen heute auch den DAX nach unten. Das deutsche Börsenbarometer notierte am Nachmittag bei 6.200 Zählern mit 0,3 Prozent im Minus. Entscheidende Konjunkturdaten stehen heute nicht mehr auf dem Programm.
Kurzfristig orientierte Derivateanleger agierten sehr zurückhaltend. Der Euwax Sentiment Index pendelte bei vergleichsweise niedrigen Umsätzen im Bereich der Nulllinie. ... mehr
Anleihen: Abwärtstrend der Bund-Renditen gebrochen
Börse Frankfurt - Bonds - 10.09.2010
Marktbericht vom Rentenhandel
10. September 2010. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Von einer „sehr bewegten Woche“ spricht ein Händler der Hellwig Wertpapierhandelsbank. Die Risikoprämien für Staatspapiere einiger EU-Peripherieländer waren zwischenzeitlich heftig gestiegen. Plötzlich hätten Anleger ihr Augenmerk wieder auf die Gefahren der überbordenden Verschuldung gerichtet, erläutert Klaus Stopp von der Baader Bank. Auslöser war die avisierte Abwicklung der verstaatlichten Anglo Irish Bank Anfang der Woche, wie er ausführt. ... mehr
Hüfners Wochenkommentar: Angst vor der Konjunktur in Amerika?
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 10.09.2010
10. September 2010. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Keiner traut dem Frieden mit der Konjunktur. Das zweite Quartal war in puncto Wachstum in Europa zwar gut (+ 4 % Jahresrate), aber die meisten haben Angst, dass sich dies nicht so fortsetzt. Sie schauen auf die USA, wo die Wirtschaft eher dahin dümpelt. Sie beobachten die Befürchtungen einer neuen Rezession. Und sie sehen die schwächere Wall Street und die Deflationssorgen an den US-Bond-Märkten. Wird der Euroraum nicht früher oder später doch von der größten Volkswirtschaft der Welt nach unten gezogen? ... mehr
The Energy Report - The Buck stops
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 10.09.2010
President Truman used to have a sigh on his desk that the buck stops here. President Obama should have one that says the buck stops with the last administration. If you are going to solve the problem you have to admit you have a problem yet the entire Democratic Party is lost in this sense of what I would call arrogant denial. In fact in some cases it is downright scary. Did anyone see that interview with Harry Reid that sad that he had nothing to do with the bad economy? ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 10.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 13 lower at 130’06. This market is now below last Friday’s low after the Jobs Report. Technically the next level of support is the 129’22 level, a level where I will be willing to try the long side of the market for short a term trade. For the near term resistance is currently the 131’15 level. Keep in mind the yield for the 30 Yr. Bond is still below the 4% level and the 10 Yr. Note below the 3% level. Just an aside from what I’ve been hearing “on the street”, a Republican victory in mid-term elections will be bullish for stocks and bearish for Bonds. ... mehr
Daily Commodities Update: Gold
autochartist.com - Commodities - 10.09.2010
With the 30-minute chart of Gold currently in distribution, confirmed by the four-bar Initial Trend reading, expect exhaustion at the 1250 level. The Channel Down pattern alert is indicating that there will be selling pressure waiting at the upper line of the pattern. The overall trend has been down, despite the recent move higher from 1243, and because prices have not yet been able to rally higher through the resistance of the Channel Down, there is still a bearish trend in intraday Gold. ... mehr
Daily Forex Update: AUD/USD
autochartist.com - Forex - 10.09.2010
The 15-minute AUD/USD is still maintaining a slight bullish sentiment as prices on the daily chart test the highs from May. The intraday rally is still maintaining enough buying support to remain above 0.9200 which was tested during the middle of the Friday Asian trading session. Look for the 15-minute Rising Wedge reversal to be bought into after the initial drop and at the Autochartist Forecast between 0.9235 and 0.9222. The short-term intraday uptrend will continue if the top of the Forecast region turns out to be an area of support. ... mehr
Leichte Kursverluste am deutschen Aktienmarkt
X-Trade Brokers - Indizes - 10.09.2010
Auf dem deutschen Aktienmarkt verzeichnet der DAX zur Mittagsstunde leichte Kursverluste. Demnach gibt der Leitindex gegen 13:15 Uhr um knapp 0,4 Prozent auf einen Stand von exakt 6.200 Punkten nach. Ursache für die leicht negative Tendenz sind vor allem die Kursverluste der Anteilsscheine der Deutschen Bank, welche zum selben Zeitpunkt ein deutliches Kursminus von 4,9 Prozent verzeichnen. Medienberichten zufolge plant die Frankfurter Großbank schon in der kommenden Woche eine Kapitalerhöhung im Umfang von 8 bis 9 Milliarden Euro. Dies lässt Spekulationen offen wofür die Bank das Geld benötigt. ... mehr
Bond Market Perspectives - USA - 10. September
HSH Nordbank Research - Bonds - 10.09.2010
Mit den näher rückenden mid term elections steigt die Nervosität der Demokraten. Selbst der etwas besser als erwartet ausgefallene Arbeitsmarktbericht sowie die Korrektur der Vormonatswerte hin zum Besseren haben keinen Optimismus aufkommen lassen, denn die Zahl der neu geschaffenen Stellen im privaten Sektor reicht bei weitem nicht aus, um die Arbeitslosenrate zurückzuführen. So fürchten die Demokraten, glaubt man den zahlreichen Meinungsumfragen, ihre Mehrheiten im Senat und im Repräsentantenhaus zu verlieren. ... mehr
