Kolumnen & Analysen - Archiv Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 03.09.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’29 lower at 130’20. This mornings Employment Report showed a decline in non-farm payrolls of 54K versus expectations of a decline of 120K. The market movement speaks for itself, the report was favorable for the economy and negative to Bonds. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 6’29 premium the Bonds. I recommend liquidating this spread position and standing aside until next week. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 03.09.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’29 lower at 130’20. This mornings Employment Report showed a decline in non-farm payrolls of 54K versus expectations of a decline of 120K. The market movement speaks for itself, the report was favorable for the economy and negative to Bonds. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 6’29 premium the Bonds. I recommend liquidating this spread position and standing aside until next week. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 02.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 132’27. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’06 premium the Bonds on the Dec. contract. A liitle history on this trade: We are currently losing about $1000 since we originally put this spread on a few weeks ago in Sept. contract and then rolling it into Dec. This mornings weekly report on Initial Unemployment Claims showed a decline of 7,000 versus a pre-report estimate of down 3,000. This is not exactly good news for the economy but better than expected. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 132’08 and resistance 134’06. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 02.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 132’27. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’06 premium the Bonds on the Dec. contract. A liitle history on this trade: We are currently losing about $1000 since we originally put this spread on a few weeks ago in Sept. contract and then rolling it into Dec. This mornings weekly report on Initial Unemployment Claims showed a decline of 7,000 versus a pre-report estimate of down 3,000. This is not exactly good news for the economy but better than expected. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 132’08 and resistance 134’06. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 01.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1’02 lower at 133’31. Some constructive Global economic news out of China and Australia have rallied equities and consequently set the Bonds back this morning. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread has narrowed some 20 points this morning putting the spread at 8’25 premium the Bonds. Tomorrow will be the weekly Unemployment Report and Friday the monthly Jobs Report. The ADP Private Sector Jobs Report was -10k well below the expected +17K, ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 01.09.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1’02 lower at 133’31. Some constructive Global economic news out of China and Australia have rallied equities and consequently set the Bonds back this morning. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread has narrowed some 20 points this morning putting the spread at 8’25 premium the Bonds. Tomorrow will be the weekly Unemployment Report and Friday the monthly Jobs Report. The ADP Private Sector Jobs Report was -10k well below the expected +17K, ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 31.08.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 higher at 134’23. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 9’02 premium the Bonds. This puts the current loss on the spread from the initial trade in the Sept. contract at about $2500. At this point I will be glad to limit the losses and give it another day or so to see if the Bonds retreat. The Bonds and the spread have now gained back everything they lost last Friday, forming a possible double top. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 31.08.2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 higher at 134’23. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 9’02 premium the Bonds. This puts the current loss on the spread from the initial trade in the Sept. contract at about $2500. At this point I will be glad to limit the losses and give it another day or so to see if the Bonds retreat. The Bonds and the spread have now gained back everything they lost last Friday, forming a possible double top. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 30.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 25 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’26. losing 10 points for the day. On Friday Bonds were were more than 2’00 points lower and the 10 Yr. Note/ Bond spread came in by more than a full point. Today I recommend rolling the spread into the Dec. contracts as the Dec. will be considered lead contract staring tomorrow and Sept. will be deliverable. This morning U.S. Personal Income came it at +0.2% as compared with with an estimate of + 0.3%.Consumer spending was up 0.4%, in line with expectations. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 131’26 and near term resistance 134’16. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 30.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 25 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’26. losing 10 points for the day. On Friday Bonds were were more than 2’00 points lower and the 10 Yr. Note/ Bond spread came in by more than a full point. Today I recommend rolling the spread into the Dec. contracts as the Dec. will be considered lead contract staring tomorrow and Sept. will be deliverable. This morning U.S. Personal Income came it at +0.2% as compared with with an estimate of + 0.3%.Consumer spending was up 0.4%, in line with expectations. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 131’26 and near term resistance 134’16. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 27.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 27.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 26.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 26.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 25.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 23 higher at 136’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 9’24 premium the Bonds. To say that I am currently on the wrong side of this market would be an understatement given the current losses. However, I feel that I will be right for the long term. Yesterday a disappointing Existing Home Sales report showed a decline of 27.2% which caused the market to rally to new recent highs. This mornings Durable Goods report came in at +0.3% versus expectations of 2.8%. Durable Goods ex-transportation was down by 3.8%. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 25.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 23 higher at 136’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 9’24 premium the Bonds. To say that I am currently on the wrong side of this market would be an understatement given the current losses. However, I feel that I will be right for the long term. Yesterday a disappointing Existing Home Sales report showed a decline of 27.2% which caused the market to rally to new recent highs. This mornings Durable Goods report came in at +0.3% versus expectations of 2.8%. Durable Goods ex-transportation was down by 3.8%. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 23.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 133’23. The long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’11 premium the Bonds (narrowing by 4 points). My objective for this spread still remains in the 6’15 area. Near term support is currently the 132’00 area and near term resistance just above 135’00. I still remain negative this market as long as the yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains under 4%.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 8 cents lower, Dec. Corn 7 cents higher and Dec. Wheat 2 lower. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 23.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 133’23. The long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’11 premium the Bonds (narrowing by 4 points). My objective for this spread still remains in the 6’15 area. Near term support is currently the 132’00 area and near term resistance just above 135’00. I still remain negative this market as long as the yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains under 4%.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 8 cents lower, Dec. Corn 7 cents higher and Dec. Wheat 2 lower. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 20.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently 4 higher at 8’17 putting the spread at an $1100 loss from where I initiated the spread. Technically the Bonds have made a test of the highs made the week of March 20th in the 134’00 area and surpassed it slightly with an over night high of 135’07. to be honest, I still feel that this market is overbought and feel that the market will retreat to the 132’00 level, which will still put the yield on the 30 Yr. at under 4%. I feel that except for the Government using the 10 and 30 Yr. instruments to keep yields artificially low that there will be a lack of buyers. I would be interested in your comments and opinions on this market. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 20.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently 4 higher at 8’17 putting the spread at an $1100 loss from where I initiated the spread. Technically the Bonds have made a test of the highs made the week of March 20th in the 134’00 area and surpassed it slightly with an over night high of 135’07. to be honest, I still feel that this market is overbought and feel that the market will retreat to the 132’00 level, which will still put the yield on the 30 Yr. at under 4%. I feel that except for the Government using the 10 and 30 Yr. instruments to keep yields artificially low that there will be a lack of buyers. I would be interested in your comments and opinions on this market. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 19.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 133’09. Weekly initial jobless claims rose 12,000 to 500,000, the highest level since last November. Pre-report average guesstimates were for a decline of 4,000. For the week of Aug. 7th continuing claims fell 13,000 to 4,478,000. The initial reaction in the Bonds was a rally to the 133’20 level before breaking back to present levels. The long 10 Yr. Note/short Bond spread is currently up 5 points at 7’29. We continue to hold this spread, looking for the spread to decline to the 6’20 level. Near term support remains at 132’12 and near term resistance 134’01. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 19.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 133’09. Weekly initial jobless claims rose 12,000 to 500,000, the highest level since last November. Pre-report average guesstimates were for a decline of 4,000. For the week of Aug. 7th continuing claims fell 13,000 to 4,478,000. The initial reaction in the Bonds was a rally to the 133’20 level before breaking back to present levels. The long 10 Yr. Note/short Bond spread is currently up 5 points at 7’29. We continue to hold this spread, looking for the spread to decline to the 6’20 level. Near term support remains at 132’12 and near term resistance 134’01. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 18.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 28 higher at 133’25. Slower than expected economic growth and a fear of deflation have pushed the market back to the weekly highs (a new recent high was made overnight at 134’01). I still feel that this market is overbought and that deflation fears are overblown. The lnog 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 7’25, about 12 points above where we initiated this trade. My objective remains in the 6’20 area for the spread. Near term support is currently the 132’12 level and resistance the over night high of 134’01. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 18.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 28 higher at 133’25. Slower than expected economic growth and a fear of deflation have pushed the market back to the weekly highs (a new recent high was made overnight at 134’01). I still feel that this market is overbought and that deflation fears are overblown. The lnog 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 7’25, about 12 points above where we initiated this trade. My objective remains in the 6’20 area for the spread. Near term support is currently the 132’12 level and resistance the over night high of 134’01. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 17.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 7 lower at 133’21. There were a number of gov’t. reports this morning: Building permits were down 3.1%. Housing starts were up 1.7% versus expectations of up 0.2%. June’s revised Housing Starts were down 8.7% versus the June number of 5.0% (not unexpected). PPI was up 0.2% right in line with expectations. PPI excluding food and energy was up 0.3% versus expectations of 0.1%. Not much in these numbers to move the Bond market. Equities have rallied slightly on these numbers. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 17.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 7 lower at 133’21. There were a number of gov’t. reports this morning: Building permits were down 3.1%. Housing starts were up 1.7% versus expectations of up 0.2%. June’s revised Housing Starts were down 8.7% versus the June number of 5.0% (not unexpected). PPI was up 0.2% right in line with expectations. PPI excluding food and energy was up 0.3% versus expectations of 0.1%. Not much in these numbers to move the Bond market. Equities have rallied slightly on these numbers. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 16.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’01 higher at 133’01. Slower quarterly growth in Japan has put upward pressure on Bonds in our markets. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently trading at 7’03 premium the Bonds. I must admit that this spread currently looks very attractive for a short term trade (1-5 days) and I am going to put this spread on at the market and look for a 15 point profit over the next day or so. If you went short the Bonds over the last couple of days, I would use a buy stop 10 points above the overnight high of 133’10. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 16.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’01 higher at 133’01. Slower quarterly growth in Japan has put upward pressure on Bonds in our markets. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently trading at 7’03 premium the Bonds. I must admit that this spread currently looks very attractive for a short term trade (1-5 days) and I am going to put this spread on at the market and look for a 15 point profit over the next day or so. If you went short the Bonds over the last couple of days, I would use a buy stop 10 points above the overnight high of 133’10. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 13.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’11. This morning CPI came out up 0.3%, in line with expectations. Retail Sales were up 0.4%, also in line with expectations. As mentioned yesterday, the market is currently trading close enough to long term resistance of 132’00 that I am willing to try the short side of the market for short term trading (1-5 days). Near term support is currently the 130’00 level and resistance 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 13 cents higher, Dec. Corn 10 higher and Dec. Wheat 18 higher. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 13.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’11. This morning CPI came out up 0.3%, in line with expectations. Retail Sales were up 0.4%, also in line with expectations. As mentioned yesterday, the market is currently trading close enough to long term resistance of 132’00 that I am willing to try the short side of the market for short term trading (1-5 days). Near term support is currently the 130’00 level and resistance 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 13 cents higher, Dec. Corn 10 higher and Dec. Wheat 18 higher. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 12.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’16. This mornings Weekly Unemployment Report showed claims up by 2,000, the market was expecting a decline. At current prices the market has just about reached long term resistance of 132’00 and I am now willing to try the short side of the market for short term trades as we will be against the prevailing trend. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is running at 5’28 and I am also willing to give this try for a short term trade (1-5 days). ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 12.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 4 higher at 131’16. This mornings Weekly Unemployment Report showed claims up by 2,000, the market was expecting a decline. At current prices the market has just about reached long term resistance of 132’00 and I am now willing to try the short side of the market for short term trades as we will be against the prevailing trend. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is running at 5’28 and I am also willing to give this try for a short term trade (1-5 days). ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 11.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 30 higher at 130’23. Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged but indicated that they will be buyers of long term instruments (5 yr., 10 yr., etc.) in an effort to keep longer term rates low. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short 30 Yr. Bond spread is now trading at 5’06 premium the Bonds, the recent high on this spread being 5’15 premium the Bonds. Yields on the 2 Yr. Note and 5 Yr. Note remain at historic lows. The 10 Yr. Note is now under 2.75% and the 30 Yr. just under 4%. I remain on the sidelines awaiting opportunity. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 11.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 30 higher at 130’23. Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged but indicated that they will be buyers of long term instruments (5 yr., 10 yr., etc.) in an effort to keep longer term rates low. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short 30 Yr. Bond spread is now trading at 5’06 premium the Bonds, the recent high on this spread being 5’15 premium the Bonds. Yields on the 2 Yr. Note and 5 Yr. Note remain at historic lows. The 10 Yr. Note is now under 2.75% and the 30 Yr. just under 4%. I remain on the sidelines awaiting opportunity. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 10.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1 tick higher at 129’12. The market is awaiting today’s announcement on interest rates by the FOMC at 1:15 Chicago time. I believe there will be an indication of easing of some sort, whether an outright easing of the discount rate, Fed Funds or continued purchases by the Fed of treasuries in an effort to tkeep rates low. It is probably time to start watching the money supply, funds to purchase treasuries have to come from somewhere. If there is continued growth in the money supply, I feel that long term rates will eventually start to rise. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 10.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1 tick higher at 129’12. The market is awaiting today’s announcement on interest rates by the FOMC at 1:15 Chicago time. I believe there will be an indication of easing of some sort, whether an outright easing of the discount rate, Fed Funds or continued purchases by the Fed of treasuries in an effort to tkeep rates low. It is probably time to start watching the money supply, funds to purchase treasuries have to come from somewhere. If there is continued growth in the money supply, I feel that long term rates will eventually start to rise. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 09.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are cuurently 7 lower at 129’10. As mentioned last week, I am currently on the sidelines. The feature this week will be the FMOC meeting which many are speculating will result in “quantitative easing” . With the 30 Yr. yielding 4%, the 10 yr. 2.82% and the 5 yr and 2 yr. at record low yields, I do not know how much more the Fed can ease. Could 90 day TBills go much below 0.1%? I continue to watch the spread between the 10 Yr. and 30 Yr. which is now 4’28 premium the 30 Yr. My inclination is to go long the 10 Yr./ short the 30 Yr., but I will wait until aftrer the FMOC meeting. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 09.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are cuurently 7 lower at 129’10. As mentioned last week, I am currently on the sidelines. The feature this week will be the FMOC meeting which many are speculating will result in “quantitative easing” . With the 30 Yr. yielding 4%, the 10 yr. 2.82% and the 5 yr and 2 yr. at record low yields, I do not know how much more the Fed can ease. Could 90 day TBills go much below 0.1%? I continue to watch the spread between the 10 Yr. and 30 Yr. which is now 4’28 premium the 30 Yr. My inclination is to go long the 10 Yr./ short the 30 Yr., but I will wait until aftrer the FMOC meeting. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 06.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’00 higher at 129’12. This mornings Monthly Employment Report showed a decline non-farm payrolls of 131,000 versus expectations of a decline of 60,000. The 2 Yr. Note now has a yield of less than ½%, a new all time low. The Bonds are now above yesterday’s resistance of 128’28. I remain on the sidelines. Major resistance remains at 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 4 cents higher, Dec. Corn 3 higher and Dec. Wheat 59’6 higher. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 06.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’00 higher at 129’12. This mornings Monthly Employment Report showed a decline non-farm payrolls of 131,000 versus expectations of a decline of 60,000. The 2 Yr. Note now has a yield of less than ½%, a new all time low. The Bonds are now above yesterday’s resistance of 128’28. I remain on the sidelines. Major resistance remains at 132’00.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 4 cents higher, Dec. Corn 3 higher and Dec. Wheat 59’6 higher. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 05.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 13 higher at 128’10. This morning’s weekly Unemployment Report showed an increase in claims of 19,000 vs. an expectation of a decline of 2,000. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 6 cents higher, Dec. Corn 11 higher and Dec. Wheat 45 higher. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 05.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 13 higher at 128’10. This morning’s weekly Unemployment Report showed an increase in claims of 19,000 vs. an expectation of a decline of 2,000. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: Yesterday Nov. Beans closed 6 cents higher, Dec. Corn 11 higher and Dec. Wheat 45 higher. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 04.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 128’18. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. Long term resistance remains at 132’00. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains around 4% and the yield on the 10 Yr. is currently 2.90%. Yields on the 2 Yr. and 5 Yr. are on all time lows (at least during my 37 yr. career). The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 4’19 premium the Bonds. I will be interested in doing this spread at 4’28 premium the Bonds or higher. At the moment I am still on the sidelines as far as an outright futures position is concerned. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 04.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 128’18. Near term support remains at 127’18 and near term resistance at 128’28. Long term resistance remains at 132’00. The yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains around 4% and the yield on the 10 Yr. is currently 2.90%. Yields on the 2 Yr. and 5 Yr. are on all time lows (at least during my 37 yr. career). The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 4’19 premium the Bonds. I will be interested in doing this spread at 4’28 premium the Bonds or higher. At the moment I am still on the sidelines as far as an outright futures position is concerned. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 03.08.2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 14 higher at 128’02. Near term support of 127’18 held yesterday as evidenced by this mornings higher market. Near term resistance remains at 128’28. As mentioned last week long term resistance could be as high as 132’00. The 30 Yr. Bond continues with a yield just above the 4% level, while the 10 Yr. Note yield remains under 3% at 2.92%. I am still hesitant to take a position in this market. What I am looking at, once again, is for an opportunity in the long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread which is currently at 4’10 premium the Bonds. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 03.08.2010
Financials: Bonds are currently 14 higher at 128’02. Near term support of 127’18 held yesterday as evidenced by this mornings higher market. Near term resistance remains at 128’28. As mentioned last week long term resistance could be as high as 132’00. The 30 Yr. Bond continues with a yield just above the 4% level, while the 10 Yr. Note yield remains under 3% at 2.92%. I am still hesitant to take a position in this market. What I am looking at, once again, is for an opportunity in the long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread which is currently at 4’10 premium the Bonds. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 02.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 21 lower at 128’02. Near term support is currently 127’18 and near term resistance 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 17 cents higher, Dec. Corn 13 higher and Dec. Wheat 34 higher. Over night Beans were 16 higher, Corn 8 higher and Wheat 26 higher. Historically high temperatures in the Ukraine, wet conditiond in China and continued purcheases by Commodity Funds continue to fuel upside momentum. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 02.08.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 21 lower at 128’02. Near term support is currently 127’18 and near term resistance 128’28. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 17 cents higher, Dec. Corn 13 higher and Dec. Wheat 34 higher. Over night Beans were 16 higher, Corn 8 higher and Wheat 26 higher. Historically high temperatures in the Ukraine, wet conditiond in China and continued purcheases by Commodity Funds continue to fuel upside momentum. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - Commodities - 30.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’22 higher at 128’18. This mornings report on 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.4% versus an expectation of 2.5%. In the first quarter the economy grew by 3.7% revised from 2.7%, but growth estimates going back as far as 2007 have been revised to lower numbers. This overal revision of data over the past 3 years showed that the exit from the economic slump started in 2007 was weaker than anticipated. As an economist friend of mine likes to say “ Economists have predicted 11 out of the last 7 recessions”. This saying, I assume, also goes for recoveries. ... mehr
The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 30.07.2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’22 higher at 128’18. This mornings report on 2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.4% versus an expectation of 2.5%. In the first quarter the economy grew by 3.7% revised from 2.7%, but growth estimates going back as far as 2007 have been revised to lower numbers. This overal revision of data over the past 3 years showed that the exit from the economic slump started in 2007 was weaker than anticipated. As an economist friend of mine likes to say “ Economists have predicted 11 out of the last 7 recessions”. This saying, I assume, also goes for recoveries. ... mehr
Aktuelle Kolumnen & Analysen
The Energy Report - Demand Jam
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 07.09.2010
Will disappointing holiday demand be the story or will a new wave of economic optimism generated by last week’s better than expected jobs report make the headlines? Companies did add more jobs than expected as non-farm private payrolls actually rose by 67,000. Forget that Chicken Little maybe the sky isn’t falling after all but with jobs still far from a pace that will get us back to normal I don’t think that there is reason to celebrate. I think the market may slip into a negative mode. Did the Labor Day holiday bail us out on the demand side? ... mehr
ETFs: Im Zweifel für Bluechips
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 07.09.2010
Marktbericht vom Handel mit Indexfonds
7. September 2010. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Mit den seit dem vergangenen Mittwoch nach oben kletternden Aktienkursen steigt auch das Interesse an Indexfonds wieder. Die Umsätze zogen zuletzt an, wie Händler einhellig berichten. Von einer "sehr guten Woche" spricht etwa Eric Wiegand von der Deutschen Bank. "Die Volumina haben sich sehr erfreulich entwickelt", erklärt auch Andreas Bartels von der Commerzbank: "Wir hoffen, dass die Sommerflaute überstanden ist." ... mehr
Öl: Neues Kursziel - Nach unten korrigiert
M. Kiewitz I WH SelfInvest - Commodities - 07.09.2010
Der Ölmarkt sollte in dieser Woche seitwärts bis höher tendieren. Der Ölpreis könnte im günstigsten Fall sogar bis $77.00/bbl steigen.
Ein wenig Support erwarten wir uns vom Fortsetzen des Nachhalls der guten US-Arbeitsmarktzahlen vom vergangenen Freitag. Dieser sollte einhergehen mit einem potentiel weiter steigenden Aktienmarkt.
Weiterhin glauben wir allerdings, dass es Ölpreise schwer haben werden, über die Marke von $77.00/bbl zu steigen. ... mehr
Euwax-Trends am Vormittag: DAX tendiert etwas leichter
Börse Stuttgart - Indizes - 07.09.2010
Nachdem der NIKKEI-225-Index in Japan heute nach Gewinnmitnahmen bei 9.226 Punkten mit 0,85 Prozent im Minus schloss, tendierte auch der DAX am Vormittag leichter. Das deutsche Börsenbarometer lag bei 6.105 Zählern mit 0,8 Prozent im Minus.
In den USA wird nach dem gestrigen Feiertag „Labor Day“ heute wieder gehandelt. Nun warten die Marktteilnehmer auf den Auftakt der Börsensitzung dort.
Die Mehrheit der kurzfristig orientierten Marktteilnehmer setzt derzeit auf steigende DAX-Notierungen. Der Euwax Sentiment Index lag am Vormittag bei plus 25 Punkten. ... mehr
Kanadischer „Loonie“ weiter im Aufwind!
Dr. Detlef Rettinger - Forex - 07.09.2010
Während die Notenbanken in Australien, Japan und Großbritannien bei ihren Sitzungen in dieser Woche voraussichtlich nicht an der Zinsschraube drehen, könnte die Bank of Canada am Mittwoch den Leitzins von 0,75 auf 1,00 Prozent anheben. Kanada profitiert vom Rohstoffboom – und das nicht zu knapp. Die Wirtschaft hat sich gut erholt und die Bankenbranche blieb von der Finanzkrise weitgehend unberührt. Allerdings ist Kanada stark vom großen Nachbarn USA abhängig und dort schwächelt die Wirtschaft ja weiterhin. ... mehr
Eine Herbstrallye steht vor der Tür! (Gründe 4 und 5)
Florian Schulz - Indizes - 07.09.2010
In meiner gestrigen Kolumne habe ich Ihnen gezeigt, dass aktuell an der Börse so viel Pessimismus herrscht wie selten zuvor und wie stark die Ergebnisse der Unternehmen in den letzten Quartalen die Ergebnisse der Analysten schlugen. Zudem erklärte ich Ihnen warum ich aktuell soviel Übernahme- und Aktienrückkauffantasie sehe wie selten zuvor.
Heute werde ich Ihnen zwei weitere Gründe nennen, die für eine Herbstrallye sprechen. ... mehr
Global Market Brief Sept 7th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -EU Crisis Back Again
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 07.09.2010
Overview: A classic EU sovereign debt/banking crisis fear inspired risk aversion day, slamming risk assets, especially the EUR. Sparked by a WSJ report that July bank stress tests understated PIIGS bond exposure. This is old new, but comes at a sensitive time as PIIGS seek to sell $80 bln in bonds and their bond and CDS rates are already at/near May crisis levels. Bond markets were already nervous, and now may make new bond sales more expensive yet. ... mehr
Verbesserte Marktstimmung währt nicht lange: Als sicher geltende Anlagewährungen - USD, CHF - profitieren
HSH Nordbank Research - Forex - 07.09.2010
Lange hat die verbesserte Marktstimmung aufgrund des freundlicheren USArbeitsmarkberichtes, die EUR/USD bis auf Niveaus von über 1,29 getrieben hat, nicht angehalten. Gestern war schon wieder Schluss damit, und vermeintlich sichere Anlagewährungen wie der USD oder der CHF konnten profitieren. Diese Tendenz hat sich heute Morgen weiter fortgesetzt. EUR/USD notiert knapp unter 1,28 und EUR/CHF ist erneut unter die Marke von 1,30 gefallen. ... mehr
Doppelter Antrieb für Australischen Dollar
Torsten Gellert I FXCM - Forex - 07.09.2010
„Der australische Dollar hat derzeit doppelten Rückenwind. Die Chancen stehen gut, dass das Währungspaar AUD/USD in absehbarer Zeit an das Niveau anknüpfen kann, das es vor der Weltwirtschaftskrise hatte“, so eine Einschätzung von Torsten Gellert, Managing Director von FXCM Deutschland. „Einerseits profitiert die Währung von der guten Wirtschaftslage in Australien. Jetzt kommt hinzu, dass die Risikoneigung im Markt zurückgeht. Das schwächt den US-Dollar und beflügelt den Wechselkurs.“ ... mehr
Gewinnmitnahmen auf dem Frankfurter Parkett
X-Trade Brokers - Indizes - 07.09.2010
Nach den deutlichen Kursgewinnen der vergangenen Handelstage dominieren Gewinnmitnahmen das Frankfurter Börsenparkett. Demnach sind zur aktuellen Stunde viele Anleger angesichts leicht rückläufiger US-Futures und einem wieder schwächeren Euro bereit, das Kursniveau zu nutzen, um Anteilsscheine auf dem Markt anzubieten. Der deutsche Leitindex DAX gibt 15 Minuten nach Handelsstart 0,5 Prozent nach und tendiert bei einem Stand von 6.126 Punkten. Deutliche Impulse erwarten Marktteilnehmer erst, wenn die US-Börsen heute Nachmittag nach dem langen Wochenende wieder den Handel aufnehmen. ... mehr
