Kolumnen & Analysen - Archiv Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX
Global Market Brief Sept 7th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -EU Crisis Back Again
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 07.09.2010
Overview: A classic EU sovereign debt/banking crisis fear inspired risk aversion day, slamming risk assets, especially the EUR. Sparked by a WSJ report that July bank stress tests understated PIIGS bond exposure. This is old new, but comes at a sensitive time as PIIGS seek to sell $80 bln in bonds and their bond and CDS rates are already at/near May crisis levels. Bond markets were already nervous, and now may make new bond sales more expensive yet. ... mehr
Global Market Brief Sept 7th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -EU Crisis Back Again
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 07.09.2010
Overview: A classic EU sovereign debt/banking crisis fear inspired risk aversion day, slamming risk assets, especially the EUR. Sparked by a WSJ report that July bank stress tests understated PIIGS bond exposure. This is old new, but comes at a sensitive time as PIIGS seek to sell $80 bln in bonds and their bond and CDS rates are already at/near May crisis levels. Bond markets were already nervous, and now may make new bond sales more expensive yet. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT 6th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally Continues
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 06.09.2010
Overview: Risk appetite continuing thus far Monday across the range of risk assets, only oil lower but stocks, commodities, risk fx higher. NB: US markets closed, beware BoJ, SNB intervention attempts as low liquidity would make it relatively easy for them get crowded longs running for the exits to take profits and serve as future warning to speculators. If the BoJ, SNB let this opportunity pass, it’s a sign they’ve really given up for now, hoping that the risk rally will do their work for them. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT 6th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally Continues
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 06.09.2010
Overview: Risk appetite continuing thus far Monday across the range of risk assets, only oil lower but stocks, commodities, risk fx higher. NB: US markets closed, beware BoJ, SNB intervention attempts as low liquidity would make it relatively easy for them get crowded longs running for the exits to take profits and serve as future warning to speculators. If the BoJ, SNB let this opportunity pass, it’s a sign they’ve really given up for now, hoping that the risk rally will do their work for them. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.2ND Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 02.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia, US ISM Manufacturing report, though somehow manage to ignore negative US ADP jobs data. ECB rate decision and statement, along with US pending existing home sales are the key calendar items still to come today after great Swiss retail sales and poor Aussie trade balance figures. Friday’s US jobs reports could well decide how the week ultimately looks, especially if there is a decisively strong beat or miss of the forecasted -101k. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.2ND Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 02.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia, US ISM Manufacturing report, though somehow manage to ignore negative US ADP jobs data. ECB rate decision and statement, along with US pending existing home sales are the key calendar items still to come today after great Swiss retail sales and poor Aussie trade balance figures. Friday’s US jobs reports could well decide how the week ultimately looks, especially if there is a decisively strong beat or miss of the forecasted -101k. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.1ST Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex – Risk Bounce?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 01.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia. However, UK Mfg PMI misses badly, and day’s results likely to be determined by US Mfg PMI and ADP NFP later today.
STOCKS: US: Mixed – Equities remained in a tight trading range. For the sixth time since August 24th, the 1040 support level for the S&P 500 held, and the index closed fractionally higher, with the other major US indices closing just above or below their openings, reflecting continued indecision about the near term trend. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.1ST Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex – Risk Bounce?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 01.09.2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia. However, UK Mfg PMI misses badly, and day’s results likely to be determined by US Mfg PMI and ADP NFP later today.
STOCKS: US: Mixed – Equities remained in a tight trading range. For the sixth time since August 24th, the 1040 support level for the S&P 500 held, and the index closed fractionally higher, with the other major US indices closing just above or below their openings, reflecting continued indecision about the near term trend. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF 8/31 Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Red September?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 31.08.2010
Overview: Markets Painted Red. A bounce lower off of resistance on profit taking following Friday’s bounce off of support on bargain hunting and short covering. In sum an indecisive market likely to remain within the past week’s trading ranges until the balance of the abundant top tier calendar events becomes decisively positive or negative enough to justify a drive above or below the past week’s trading ranges. As noted in our weekly outlook, markets are expecting more bad news confirming a slowdown throughout the developed world and even China. ... mehr
GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF 8/31 Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Red September?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 31.08.2010
Overview: Markets Painted Red. A bounce lower off of resistance on profit taking following Friday’s bounce off of support on bargain hunting and short covering. In sum an indecisive market likely to remain within the past week’s trading ranges until the balance of the abundant top tier calendar events becomes decisively positive or negative enough to justify a drive above or below the past week’s trading ranges. As noted in our weekly outlook, markets are expecting more bad news confirming a slowdown throughout the developed world and even China. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 27 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 27.08.2010
Overview
Following falls seen on Wall Street overnight, the Nikkei was off to a very weak start, falling close to 1%. Gapping down to open at 8811.47, it edged down a bit more to 8810.46 before bouncing. The Dow yesterday closed below the psychologically important 10k level for the first time since July 6. The relatively safe-haven USD often benefits when US equity prices weaken (and vice-versa). ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 27 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 27.08.2010
Overview
Following falls seen on Wall Street overnight, the Nikkei was off to a very weak start, falling close to 1%. Gapping down to open at 8811.47, it edged down a bit more to 8810.46 before bouncing. The Dow yesterday closed below the psychologically important 10k level for the first time since July 6. The relatively safe-haven USD often benefits when US equity prices weaken (and vice-versa). ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 26 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 26.08.2010
Overview
Asian stocks rose on Thursday as investors hunted for bargains among recently beaten-down shares, while the yen pulled further away from 15-year highs as investors wondered whether Japanese officials would take fresh steps to curb the currency’s strength and spur economic growth. Risk assets staged a comeback on with Gold steady on Thursday, hovering near its strongest level in eight weeks hit the previous day, with worries that the U.S. economic recovery was stalling likely to drive the metal to new highs. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 25 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 25.08.2010
Overview
Another knock for the risk markets Tuesday with Stock markets lower, across the board. Yesterday also saw major moves in the JPY with USDJPY breaching its 1995 low of 84.45.
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei at a 16-month low, as investors sold riskier assets after a spate of worrying U.S. economic data, while the yen slipped from its lows on a report Tokyo was considering weakening its currency. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 25 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 25.08.2010
Overview
Another knock for the risk markets Tuesday with Stock markets lower, across the board. Yesterday also saw major moves in the JPY with USDJPY breaching its 1995 low of 84.45.
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei at a 16-month low, as investors sold riskier assets after a spate of worrying U.S. economic data, while the yen slipped from its lows on a report Tokyo was considering weakening its currency. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 24 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 24.08.2010
Overview
Japan’s Nikkei average hit a 15-month closing low below 9,000 points on Tuesday, with hedge funds and foreigners seen selling amid mounting concern about the authorities’ inaction on a strong yen, which threatens a fragile economic recovery. The euro hit a nine-year low against the yen on Tuesday as the loss of key technical support led speculators to short the currency in the hope of forcing stop-loss sales against both the yen and the dollar. Crude oil fell almost 1 percent on Tuesday, down for a fifth day, under pressure from weakness in gasoline which fell to a 6- month low as the U.S. driving season draws to a close without triggering a stockpile drop. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 24 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 24.08.2010
Overview
Japan’s Nikkei average hit a 15-month closing low below 9,000 points on Tuesday, with hedge funds and foreigners seen selling amid mounting concern about the authorities’ inaction on a strong yen, which threatens a fragile economic recovery. The euro hit a nine-year low against the yen on Tuesday as the loss of key technical support led speculators to short the currency in the hope of forcing stop-loss sales against both the yen and the dollar. Crude oil fell almost 1 percent on Tuesday, down for a fifth day, under pressure from weakness in gasoline which fell to a 6- month low as the U.S. driving season draws to a close without triggering a stockpile drop. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 23 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 23.08.2010
Overview
The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday, retaining most of the gains it made late last week when growing worries about the global economy prompted investors to park funds in the world’s most liquid currency, while the Australian dollar slid on political uncertainty.
Japanese shares extended losses on Monday amid worries a strong yen would derail the fragile economic recovery, while the Australian dollar recovered after falling to a one-month low on inconclusive weekend elections. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 23 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 23.08.2010
Overview
The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday, retaining most of the gains it made late last week when growing worries about the global economy prompted investors to park funds in the world’s most liquid currency, while the Australian dollar slid on political uncertainty.
Japanese shares extended losses on Monday amid worries a strong yen would derail the fragile economic recovery, while the Australian dollar recovered after falling to a one-month low on inconclusive weekend elections. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 20 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 20.08.2010
Overview
Not much scheduled data due out during today’s session with the Canadian Core CPI m/m rate expected at 11.00 GMT (Forecast 0.1%) and then later at 14.00 GMT we have the Banco de Mexico interest rate decision, no change expected here with rates holding at 4.50.
All eyes will be on Australia this weekend as the country is set for a very close run Federal Election with the governments campaign chief saying a "hung parliament is a real possibility". ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 20 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 20.08.2010
Overview
Not much scheduled data due out during today’s session with the Canadian Core CPI m/m rate expected at 11.00 GMT (Forecast 0.1%) and then later at 14.00 GMT we have the Banco de Mexico interest rate decision, no change expected here with rates holding at 4.50.
All eyes will be on Australia this weekend as the country is set for a very close run Federal Election with the governments campaign chief saying a "hung parliament is a real possibility". ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 19 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 19.08.2010
Overview
Crude oil traded near the lowest in two days after the U.S. government said total petroleum stockpiles surged to the highest level in at least 20 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 119.69 as of 2:48 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.1 percent. Later in today’s session, investors will eye U.S. weekly jobless claims at 1230 GMT, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank will release its business activity index at 1400 GMT. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 19 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 19.08.2010
Overview
Crude oil traded near the lowest in two days after the U.S. government said total petroleum stockpiles surged to the highest level in at least 20 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 119.69 as of 2:48 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.1 percent. Later in today’s session, investors will eye U.S. weekly jobless claims at 1230 GMT, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank will release its business activity index at 1400 GMT. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 18 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 18.08.2010
Overview
Wholesale costs in the U.S. increased in July for the first time in four months, signalling slower growth is not resulting in deflation, or a protracted drop in prices that hurts the economy.
Elsewhere, the launch of an unsolicited $38.6 billion take-over bid by mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd for Canada’s Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc has improved sentiment across Asia.
The only main news release scheduled this morning are the MPC minutes with the prospect of the first three way split in two years a real possibility. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 18 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 18.08.2010
Overview
Wholesale costs in the U.S. increased in July for the first time in four months, signalling slower growth is not resulting in deflation, or a protracted drop in prices that hurts the economy.
Elsewhere, the launch of an unsolicited $38.6 billion take-over bid by mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd for Canada’s Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc has improved sentiment across Asia.
The only main news release scheduled this morning are the MPC minutes with the prospect of the first three way split in two years a real possibility. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 17 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 17.08.2010
Overview
American industrial production and housing starts probably rose in July from depressed levels the prior month as the U.S. struggled to sustain the recovery, economists said before reports today. The Federal Reserve’s production figures are scheduled for 13:15 GMT.
German investor confidence probably declined to a 16-month low in August, a sign economic growth is likely to slow from the record-breaking pace set in the second quarter. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 17 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 17.08.2010
Overview
American industrial production and housing starts probably rose in July from depressed levels the prior month as the U.S. struggled to sustain the recovery, economists said before reports today. The Federal Reserve’s production figures are scheduled for 13:15 GMT.
German investor confidence probably declined to a 16-month low in August, a sign economic growth is likely to slow from the record-breaking pace set in the second quarter. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 16 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 16.08.2010
Overview
Japan’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in three quarters and U.S. retail sales missed economist estimates.
Currencies
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: Key support levels at 1.2730
The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.2760 and traded up to 1.2775 on light profit taking. The EUR/USD started tracking lower when the Japan Q2 GDP came in mush worse than expected and led to JPY-cross selling. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 16 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 16.08.2010
Overview
Japan’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in three quarters and U.S. retail sales missed economist estimates.
Currencies
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: Key support levels at 1.2730
The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.2760 and traded up to 1.2775 on light profit taking. The EUR/USD started tracking lower when the Japan Q2 GDP came in mush worse than expected and led to JPY-cross selling. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 13 August 2010 - Dealers Room Commentary
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 13.08.2010
Overview
Stocks ended down for a third straight day on Thursday as an unexpected rise in jobless claims and a sobering revenue outlook from Cisco underscored the hurdles to economic recovery.
Thursday’s drop comes a day after all three major indexes posted their worst percentage declines in more than a month, erasing gains for the year in the aftermath of a gloomier outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 13 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 13.08.2010
Overview
Stocks ended down for a third straight day on Thursday as an unexpected rise in jobless claims and a sobering revenue outlook from Cisco underscored the hurdles to economic recovery.
Thursday’s drop comes a day after all three major indexes posted their worst percentage declines in more than a month, erasing gains for the year in the aftermath of a gloomier outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 12 August 2010 - Dealers Room Commentary
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 12.08.2010
Overview
U.S. stocks erased the year’s gains in the broadest selloff in a month-and-a-half on Wednesday as fears of sustained global economic stagnation caused investors to flee to safer assets. All three major indexes posted their worst percentage drop since July 16 following the Federal Reserve’s bleaker assessment of the economy on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank said it would take steps to hold down borrowing costs. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 12 August 2010 - Dealers Room Commentary
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 12.08.2010
Overview
U.S. stocks erased the year’s gains in the broadest selloff in a month-and-a-half on Wednesday as fears of sustained global economic stagnation caused investors to flee to safer assets. All three major indexes posted their worst percentage drop since July 16 following the Federal Reserve’s bleaker assessment of the economy on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank said it would take steps to hold down borrowing costs. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 11 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 11.08.2010
Overview
Asian stocks dropped to a two-week low while the yen strengthened and Treasuries climbed as the Federal Reserve said it needs to boost the U.S. economy because growth will be “more modest” than anticipated.
The Federal Reserve reversed plans to exit from aggressive monetary stimulus and decided to keep its bond holdings level to support an economic recovery it described as weaker than anticipated
Currencies
EUR/USD: Filling in Gap as EUR/JPY Slides
The EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.3040 due to heavy EUR/JPY selling in early Asia after the Nikkei opened over 2% lower. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 11 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 11.08.2010
Overview
Asian stocks dropped to a two-week low while the yen strengthened and Treasuries climbed as the Federal Reserve said it needs to boost the U.S. economy because growth will be “more modest” than anticipated.
The Federal Reserve reversed plans to exit from aggressive monetary stimulus and decided to keep its bond holdings level to support an economic recovery it described as weaker than anticipated
Currencies
EUR/USD: Filling in Gap as EUR/JPY Slides
The EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.3040 due to heavy EUR/JPY selling in early Asia after the Nikkei opened over 2% lower. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 10 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 10.08.2010
Overview
Stocks gained Monday amid light volume as investors hung back to await news from the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday. However, shares of Hewlett-Packard plunged nearly 8 percent after the surprise resignation of their CEO.
The Bank of Japan left Monetary Policy unchanged overnight leaving interest rates as expected at 0.10%.The central bank left its economic assessment unchanged. There was even no specific mention of recent JPY strength with the BoJ merely noting that it needed to watch market moves and how they affect the Japanese and global economies. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 10 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 10.08.2010
Overview
Stocks gained Monday amid light volume as investors hung back to await news from the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday. However, shares of Hewlett-Packard plunged nearly 8 percent after the surprise resignation of their CEO.
The Bank of Japan left Monetary Policy unchanged overnight leaving interest rates as expected at 0.10%.The central bank left its economic assessment unchanged. There was even no specific mention of recent JPY strength with the BoJ merely noting that it needed to watch market moves and how they affect the Japanese and global economies. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 09 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 09.08.2010
Overview
The USD dropped across the board last week, as the combination of weak US data, falling US yields and relatively buoyant risk asset markets weighed heavily.
The EUR and GBP performed particularly well due to the run of positive data out of European and calming sovereign debt markets in peripheral Europe. The AUD was boosted by a very upbeat utlook for the Aus economy expressed on two occasions by the RBA, solid data and buoyant commodity markets. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 09 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 09.08.2010
Overview
The USD dropped across the board last week, as the combination of weak US data, falling US yields and relatively buoyant risk asset markets weighed heavily.
The EUR and GBP performed particularly well due to the run of positive data out of European and calming sovereign debt markets in peripheral Europe. The AUD was boosted by a very upbeat utlook for the Aus economy expressed on two occasions by the RBA, solid data and buoyant commodity markets. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 06 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 06.08.2010
Overview
Today’s key event risk is the 12:30GMT release of July’s US employment report. Minus 65k is the consensus expectation re: the Non-Farm Payroll number, with +90k being the consensus expectation for the Private Payrolls number. The US unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9.6%, from 9.5% in June.
Currencies
EUR/USD: Idling In Quiet Asia As Market Looks To US Payrolls
The EUR/USD is idling around 1.3200 this morning, ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 06 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 06.08.2010
Overview
Today’s key event risk is the 12:30GMT release of July’s US employment report. Minus 65k is the consensus expectation re: the Non-Farm Payroll number, with +90k being the consensus expectation for the Private Payrolls number. The US unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9.6%, from 9.5% in June.
Currencies
EUR/USD: Idling In Quiet Asia As Market Looks To US Payrolls
The EUR/USD is idling around 1.3200 this morning, ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 05 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 05.08.2010
Overview
Stocks advanced Wednesday, led by consumer discretionary stocks, as encouraging reports on jobs and the services sector fueled hopes for the recovery. Both the Dow and S&P ended at their highest levels since mid-May: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.05, or 0.4 percent, to close at 10,680.43, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6 percent to close at 1,127.24. BoE and ECB meetings later today. The consensus is for no change from either.
Currencies
EUR/USD: Trading With Heavy Tone As Asian Equities Sag
The EUR/USD is trading either side of hourly support around 1.3150 ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 05 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 05.08.2010
Overview
Stocks advanced Wednesday, led by consumer discretionary stocks, as encouraging reports on jobs and the services sector fueled hopes for the recovery. Both the Dow and S&P ended at their highest levels since mid-May: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.05, or 0.4 percent, to close at 10,680.43, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6 percent to close at 1,127.24. BoE and ECB meetings later today. The consensus is for no change from either.
Currencies
EUR/USD: Trading With Heavy Tone As Asian Equities Sag
The EUR/USD is trading either side of hourly support around 1.3150 ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 04 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 04.08.2010
Overview
European shares opened lower on Wednesday, tracking weakness in Asian equities and Wall Street overnight, as disappointing U.S. data on consumer spending and housing renewed concerns over the pace of economic recovery.
Futures for the STOXX Europe 50, DAX futures and CAC-40 futures were all down 0.3 percent.
Corporate earnings are likely to be in focus, with heavyweight banks Societe Generale and Standard Chartered reporting forecast-beating results. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 04 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 04.08.2010
Overview
European shares opened lower on Wednesday, tracking weakness in Asian equities and Wall Street overnight, as disappointing U.S. data on consumer spending and housing renewed concerns over the pace of economic recovery.
Futures for the STOXX Europe 50, DAX futures and CAC-40 futures were all down 0.3 percent.
Corporate earnings are likely to be in focus, with heavyweight banks Societe Generale and Standard Chartered reporting forecast-beating results. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 03 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 03.08.2010
Overview
The GBP was the best performing currency on Monday – gaining 1.30% against the USD, CHF and JPY while ending the day 0.30% higher against the EUR. The GBP was boosted by a report saying Goldman predicted the UK economy would grow faster than the US, EZ and Japanese economies and growing expectations that more MPC members would consider joining Sentence in pushing for a BOE rate hike when they meet on Thursday.
Stock markets higher across the board yesterday with Wall Street up large (DJIA +1.99%, NASDAQ +1.8%, S&P +2.2%). ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 03 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 03.08.2010
Overview
The GBP was the best performing currency on Monday – gaining 1.30% against the USD, CHF and JPY while ending the day 0.30% higher against the EUR. The GBP was boosted by a report saying Goldman predicted the UK economy would grow faster than the US, EZ and Japanese economies and growing expectations that more MPC members would consider joining Sentence in pushing for a BOE rate hike when they meet on Thursday.
Stock markets higher across the board yesterday with Wall Street up large (DJIA +1.99%, NASDAQ +1.8%, S&P +2.2%). ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 02 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 02.08.2010
Overview
U.S. stocks recovered lost ground but closed little changed on Friday, Wall Street wrapped up its best month in a year after the earnings season rounded the final turn with a group of strong results that offs et the impact of poor economic data.
Gold regained strength on Monday, Asian stocks gained while the dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of currencies due to concerns the U.S. economy’s recovery was losing momentum following the release of poor economic growth data. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 02 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - ltfutures - 02.08.2010
Overview
U.S. stocks recovered lost ground but closed little changed on Friday, Wall Street wrapped up its best month in a year after the earnings season rounded the final turn with a group of strong results that offs et the impact of poor economic data.
Gold regained strength on Monday, Asian stocks gained while the dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of currencies due to concerns the U.S. economy’s recovery was losing momentum following the release of poor economic growth data. ... mehr
Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 30 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 30.07.2010
Overview
Stocks head into the final day of July with the best monthly gain in a year, yet July’s hot performance has only sparked debate about what August will bring. The key data point Friday is second quarter GDP, expected to show 2.5 percent growth. Even though it’s backward looking, economists have been looking forward to it for weeks as they’ve fine-tuned their estimates, based on a surprisingly choppy data stream. ... mehr
Aktuelle Kolumnen & Analysen
The Energy Report - Demand Jam
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - Commodities - 07.09.2010
Will disappointing holiday demand be the story or will a new wave of economic optimism generated by last week’s better than expected jobs report make the headlines? Companies did add more jobs than expected as non-farm private payrolls actually rose by 67,000. Forget that Chicken Little maybe the sky isn’t falling after all but with jobs still far from a pace that will get us back to normal I don’t think that there is reason to celebrate. I think the market may slip into a negative mode. Did the Labor Day holiday bail us out on the demand side? ... mehr
Gewinnmitnahmen dominieren deutschen Aktienhandel
X-Trade Brokers - Indizes - 07.09.2010
Am deutschen Aktienmarkt ist die Stimmung zur Stunde weiter etwas gedrückt. Insgesamt neigen die Anleger in einem relativen ruhigen Marktumfeld eher zu Gewinnmitnahmen, nachdem der Aktienmarkt in den vergangenen Tagen signifikant zulegen konnte. Frische Impulse werden von dem Handelsstart an der Wall Street erwartet, welche nach dem verlängerten Wochenende in den USA erst heute in den Handel startet. Rund 40 Minuten vor Handelsstart deutet der S&P Future, welcher um rund 0,6 Prozent niedriger notiert, auf eine etwas schwächere Eröffnung hin. Sollte sich die schwache Tendenz verstärken, so sehen viele Pessimisten den Aufwärtstrend der vergangenen Tage bereits wieder in Gefahr. ... mehr
ETFs: Im Zweifel für Bluechips
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 07.09.2010
Marktbericht vom Handel mit Indexfonds
7. September 2010. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Mit den seit dem vergangenen Mittwoch nach oben kletternden Aktienkursen steigt auch das Interesse an Indexfonds wieder. Die Umsätze zogen zuletzt an, wie Händler einhellig berichten. Von einer "sehr guten Woche" spricht etwa Eric Wiegand von der Deutschen Bank. "Die Volumina haben sich sehr erfreulich entwickelt", erklärt auch Andreas Bartels von der Commerzbank: "Wir hoffen, dass die Sommerflaute überstanden ist." ... mehr
Öl: Neues Kursziel - Nach unten korrigiert
M. Kiewitz I WH SelfInvest - Commodities - 07.09.2010
Der Ölmarkt sollte in dieser Woche seitwärts bis höher tendieren. Der Ölpreis könnte im günstigsten Fall sogar bis $77.00/bbl steigen.
Ein wenig Support erwarten wir uns vom Fortsetzen des Nachhalls der guten US-Arbeitsmarktzahlen vom vergangenen Freitag. Dieser sollte einhergehen mit einem potentiel weiter steigenden Aktienmarkt.
Weiterhin glauben wir allerdings, dass es Ölpreise schwer haben werden, über die Marke von $77.00/bbl zu steigen. ... mehr
Euwax-Trends am Vormittag: DAX tendiert etwas leichter
Börse Stuttgart - Indizes - 07.09.2010
Nachdem der NIKKEI-225-Index in Japan heute nach Gewinnmitnahmen bei 9.226 Punkten mit 0,85 Prozent im Minus schloss, tendierte auch der DAX am Vormittag leichter. Das deutsche Börsenbarometer lag bei 6.105 Zählern mit 0,8 Prozent im Minus.
In den USA wird nach dem gestrigen Feiertag „Labor Day“ heute wieder gehandelt. Nun warten die Marktteilnehmer auf den Auftakt der Börsensitzung dort.
Die Mehrheit der kurzfristig orientierten Marktteilnehmer setzt derzeit auf steigende DAX-Notierungen. Der Euwax Sentiment Index lag am Vormittag bei plus 25 Punkten. ... mehr
Kanadischer „Loonie“ weiter im Aufwind!
Dr. Detlef Rettinger - Forex - 07.09.2010
Während die Notenbanken in Australien, Japan und Großbritannien bei ihren Sitzungen in dieser Woche voraussichtlich nicht an der Zinsschraube drehen, könnte die Bank of Canada am Mittwoch den Leitzins von 0,75 auf 1,00 Prozent anheben. Kanada profitiert vom Rohstoffboom – und das nicht zu knapp. Die Wirtschaft hat sich gut erholt und die Bankenbranche blieb von der Finanzkrise weitgehend unberührt. Allerdings ist Kanada stark vom großen Nachbarn USA abhängig und dort schwächelt die Wirtschaft ja weiterhin. ... mehr
Eine Herbstrallye steht vor der Tür! (Gründe 4 und 5)
Florian Schulz - Indizes - 07.09.2010
In meiner gestrigen Kolumne habe ich Ihnen gezeigt, dass aktuell an der Börse so viel Pessimismus herrscht wie selten zuvor und wie stark die Ergebnisse der Unternehmen in den letzten Quartalen die Ergebnisse der Analysten schlugen. Zudem erklärte ich Ihnen warum ich aktuell soviel Übernahme- und Aktienrückkauffantasie sehe wie selten zuvor.
Heute werde ich Ihnen zwei weitere Gründe nennen, die für eine Herbstrallye sprechen. ... mehr
Global Market Brief Sept 7th Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -EU Crisis Back Again
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 07.09.2010
Overview: A classic EU sovereign debt/banking crisis fear inspired risk aversion day, slamming risk assets, especially the EUR. Sparked by a WSJ report that July bank stress tests understated PIIGS bond exposure. This is old new, but comes at a sensitive time as PIIGS seek to sell $80 bln in bonds and their bond and CDS rates are already at/near May crisis levels. Bond markets were already nervous, and now may make new bond sales more expensive yet. ... mehr
Verbesserte Marktstimmung währt nicht lange: Als sicher geltende Anlagewährungen - USD, CHF - profitieren
HSH Nordbank Research - Forex - 07.09.2010
Lange hat die verbesserte Marktstimmung aufgrund des freundlicheren USArbeitsmarkberichtes, die EUR/USD bis auf Niveaus von über 1,29 getrieben hat, nicht angehalten. Gestern war schon wieder Schluss damit, und vermeintlich sichere Anlagewährungen wie der USD oder der CHF konnten profitieren. Diese Tendenz hat sich heute Morgen weiter fortgesetzt. EUR/USD notiert knapp unter 1,28 und EUR/CHF ist erneut unter die Marke von 1,30 gefallen. ... mehr
Doppelter Antrieb für Australischen Dollar
Torsten Gellert I FXCM - Forex - 07.09.2010
„Der australische Dollar hat derzeit doppelten Rückenwind. Die Chancen stehen gut, dass das Währungspaar AUD/USD in absehbarer Zeit an das Niveau anknüpfen kann, das es vor der Weltwirtschaftskrise hatte“, so eine Einschätzung von Torsten Gellert, Managing Director von FXCM Deutschland. „Einerseits profitiert die Währung von der guten Wirtschaftslage in Australien. Jetzt kommt hinzu, dass die Risikoneigung im Markt zurückgeht. Das schwächt den US-Dollar und beflügelt den Wechselkurs.“ ... mehr
