Kolumnen & Analysen Devisen

Oil on All Fronts
Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 20.06.2014

Oil and precious metals soar as President Obama will send up to 300 advisers to Iraq and Russia builds up troops on the Ukraine border. I bet that it is making the ISIS and other Sunni-militants nervous. Brent crude led the way hitting a 9 month high with WTI being dragged along for the ride. The market rallied after the President spoke because without stronger U.S. military support the odds of the ISIS gaining more ground is high. Gold and silver broke out as the Fed will keep rates low and increasing geo-political risk in Iraq but in the Ukraine as well. Reports that the Ukraine army is rolling over pro-Russian separatists may be the motivation for Russia to build up troops on the Ukraine border. Talks of a cease-fire may be falling on deaf ears and the fighting goes on. Russia's prime minister denies the troop buildup and says that Russia is just securing the border. In the mean-time gas has been cut to the Ukraine so there has been a real disruption of supply.

That has not been the case in southern Iraq just yet but the risks of gas shortages and diesel products and the lack of oil to feed electric plants are high in Bagdad. The Baiji refinery that is under siege accounts for about one-third of the nation's refining capacity. Fox News reported that "Iraq's government insisted Thursday that security forces were still in control of the country's largest oil refinery, despite claims that Al Qaeda-aligned Sunni Muslim insurgents had raised their flag over the facility. A witness who drove past the Baiji refinery told the Associated Press that militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) had hung black banners on the refinery's watch towers and were manning checkpoints around the building. He said a huge fire in one of its tankers was raging at the time. The witness spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared reprisals.

An Iraqi security official said the government force protecting the refinery was still inside Thursday and that they were in regular contact with Baghdad. The refinery's workers had been evacuated to nearby villages, he said. He also said the militants took over a building just outside the refinery and were using it to fire at the government force." he Risk is going to be high going into the weekend! We will continue to buy breaks.

Nat Gas pulled pack after the EIA reported that working gas in storage was 1,719 Bcf as of Friday, June 13, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 113 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 706 Bcf less than last year at this time and 851 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,570 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 397 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 70 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 350 Bcf below the 5-year average of 981 Bcf after a net injection of 27 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 104 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 16 Bcf. At 1,719 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.

The key for our Natural Gas future is infrastructure that is lacking. Natural Gas intelligence reports billed as "America's Natural Gas Highway" has been established with the opening of a fueling station in El Paso, TX, according to fuel supplier and station developer Clean Energy Fuels Corp. of Newport Beach, CA. The completed link enables heavy-duty liquefied natural gas (LNG) truck fueling along more than 1,500 miles of Interstate Highway 10, the transcontinental highway between California and Florida.

In addition, on Tuesday Clean Energy said it had opened additional natural gas vehicle (NGV) fueling stations and/or begun construction to support a growing portfolio of NGV customers in the heavy-duty trucking, refuse and ready-mix market sectors. "One corridor at a time, our nationwide network [see Daily GPI, Aug. 25, 2011] is opening and changing how America moves," said Clean Energy CEO Andrew Littlefair. "The I-10 from Los Angeles to Houston is another link in America's goods-movement infrastructure now fueling with natural gas." The newly opened El Paso LNG fueling station will be used by EJ Madison's hauling for Cardinal Health, as announced earlier this year in a fueling agreement with Clean Energy. The fleet currently has traveled more than 500,000 miles.

EJ Madison intends to expand this fleet with an additional 30 dual-fuel LNG/diesel trucks in the coming months, according to Clean Energy. El Paso-based Clean Fuel Technologies LLC handled all conversions. Once fully deployed, this fleet is forecasted to consume approximately 36,000 diesel-gallon-equivalents (DGE) of LNG/year. Additionally in the trucking sector, Clean Energy said it has signed a multi-year fueling deal with Chavez Trucking to open another public access LNG station in West Sacramento, CA, near the state capital. Chavez plans to deploy 15 heavy-duty LNG trucks to haul bulk aggregate materials such as road-building and construction materials. The fleet will consume about 210,000 DGEs/year.

For the refuse sector, Clean Energy said it plans to expand compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling operations with a second facility for New Haven, CT-based All American Waste. The new fueling station will be built and operated by Clean Energy. The new facility will include 40 time-fill fueling posts for providing CNG to the refuse fleet, along with two public fast-fill dispensers with four fueling hoses. Located in the heart of New Haven, the station is scheduled to open during the fourth quarter.

The Wall Street Journal reports "A federal agency on Thursday approved a natural-gas export terminal in Louisiana, marking the second time the U.S. government has signed off on such a project. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized Cameron LNG LLC, a unit of San Diego-based Sempra Energy, SRE +0.50% to operate and construct a liquefied-natural-gas export facility in Hackberry, La., just east of the Texas border. The approval focused on the project's environmental assessment. It was the last major regulatory hurdle Cameron had to overcome and mostly clears the way for the nearly $10 billion project to begin construction. Sempra expects to begin construction later this year and will export up to 1.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day by 2019.

In the wake of the U.S. oil and natural gas boom, companies have been scrambling in the past few years to get federal approval to export natural gas, a reversal from market trends as recent as 2008 when companies were building import terminals. There are a couple dozen export proposals in the approval process. Policy makers in Washington have sharpened their focus on natural-gas exports over the past few months as the Russia-Ukraine conflict accentuates the energy dependence of Eastern Europe, and Ukraine specifically, on Russia. Russian state gas giant Gazprom said earlier this week it was suspending natural-gas deliveries to Ukraine. Sempra Energy CEO and Chairman Debra Reed praised the development. "Today's approval is another important step in delivering natural gas to America's trading partners abroad," said Ms. Reed. "We appreciate the continued support of leaders like Senator Landrieu who are helping to move the U.S. LNG industry forward." Sen. Mary Landrieu (D., La.), chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, also issued a statement that was released in coordination with Sempra's statement. "The Department of Energy should follow FERC's lead and issue the final approval for the project, and they should do so quickly."

Sempra said it plans to export gas to Japan and European nations, though it didn't specify which ones. Earlier this year, Cameron received the other needed government approval from the Energy Department, which conditionally authorized it to export natural gas to countries that aren't free-trade partners with the U.S., a category of countries that must overcome a higher regulatory burden.

The DOE now must decide whether to give a final approval for the project, a step that is considered minor compared with the department's conditional approval and FERC's environmental review. A lawsuit by companies or interest groups critical of natural-gas exports based on either environmental or price concerns could still ensue, though it is unlikely that would derail the project given it is so far along in the review process. Ms. Landrieu, who is in a tight re-election race this year, urged the department to quickly approve Cameron.

Raymond James analyst Darren Horowitz said the FERC approval was a major milestone for the Sempra-led project. "I think this project is very clear-cut," he said, noting that its 1.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas export capacity is fully subscribed. "I think this one is in good shape to not only be approved from a final investment decision standpoint, but to start getting under way in short order."

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Thank you,
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of The Energy Report.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to the Price Futures Group.

You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pricegroup.com.

Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS.

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