Kolumnen & Analysen Devisen

The Energy Report - Refinery in Flames!
Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.06.2014

While Iraq's oil exports surge the fall of the Baiji Refinery is to ISIS terrorists is not providing any comfort to the global market. The refinery which supplies Bagdad with gasoline and diesel shows that the situation in Iraq is not getting better. Oil companies are pulling out nonessential personnel even in the south of the country where at least so far things are relatively held. Oil companies are trying to export while the exporting is good yet the possibility of an oil shock is rising the south of Iraq starts to fall. While reports by the Energy Information Administration showing that North Dakota oil output hit a record 1million barrels a day, will the Fed acknowledge the risk and signal a pause in the taper if things get worse? Or will it be oil prices spikes are transitory? In the meantime oil and products are back on the rise.

While the Iraqi Army tries with some success to defend Baghdad, President Obama decided against immediate airstrikes allowing Sunni extremists to continue to commandeer US military equipment and execute captured soldiers. Dow Jones reported that parts of Iraq's main oil refinery were in flames Wednesday as government forces fought to repel militants who gained partial control of the oil facility, Iraqi security officials said. Sunni militant fighters behind a week-old offensive that has claimed several major cities and towns in northern Iraq attacked the refinery in the northern city of Baiji overnight and seized part of the installation, an oil ministry official in the country's north said. The official said employees fled the refinery as it came under attack, the latest in a weeklong siege of the oil hub. The fighting over the main source of Iraq's refined fuel for its domestic market doesn't affect production or exports from the country's chief oil fields and facilities in the south, where militants haven't reached.

In the southern parts of Iraq its business as usual. Bloomberg News reported that Iraq's oil exports from its southern terminals in the Persian Gulf are poised to surge at a time when fighting has plunged the country's north into chaos and Islamist militias are advancing toward Baghdad. Exports of Basrah Light Crude, the country's main grade, may reach about 2.8 million barrels a day next month, according to a preliminary loading plan obtained by Bloomberg News yesterday. That's 11 percent more than this year's average and would be close to a three-decade high of 2.799 million barrels that Iraq said were exported from all its ports each day in February. OPEC's second-largest producer shipped 5.43 million barrels from Basrah on June 11, Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said in Vienna the next day.

Yet can that continue if Bagdad is staved of oil products and cities continue to fall. Baghdad citizens may lose. In the mean-time the Kurds are taking full advantage of this. While watching the Iraqi oil fall apart the Kurds moved in and took over oil and production facilities.

Reuters reports that Iraqi Kurdistan has built a link connecting Kirkuk to its newly-built pipeline to Turkey, its minister of natural resources said, potentially cementing Kurdish control over the northern oil hub and reducing its reliance on Baghdad. The link could allow the Kurds to start exports of Kirkuk crude oil through their own network, giving them a major source of independent revenue and boosting any ambitions of sovereign statehood as Iraq falls into increasing disarray. The new link connects Kirkuk's Ivana dome to the Khurmala dome out of which the Kurdish pipeline runs. "That blue line was finished," Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) minister for natural resources, told a conference in London, pointing to a map of the pipelines. Baghdad's military retreat from the north under a lightning assault led by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) last week allowed the KRG's Peshmerga forces to seize control of long-disputed Kirkuk and its oil reserves - the potential economic lynchpin of a sovereign Kurdish entity. But the main 600,000 bpd Kirkuk pipeline, which accounted for the bulk of Iraq's northern crude oil exports, has been offline since March following insurgent attacks. Attempts to repair it have been thwarted by Islamic militants in the region, who have targeted engineers trying to fix sections of the line that pass through territory outside KRG control. With Baghdad busy fighting ISIL, the Kurds are pushing ahead with oil exports that could help bolster their autonomy. Oil exports will increase to 200,000-250,000 barrels per day in July, and then to 400,000 bpd by the year.

What is more in a stunning development, Turkey may for the first time ever support a Kurdish state. Ryan Grim reported that "In a statement that could have a dramatic impact on regional politics in the Middle East, a spokesman for Turkey's ruling party recently told a Kurdish media outlet that the Kurds in Iraq have the right to self-determination. The statement has been relatively overlooked so far, but could signal a shift in policy as Turkey has long been a principal opponent of Kurdish independence, which would mean a partitioning of Iraq. "The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of the entity they are living in," Huseyin Celik, a spokesman for the Justice and Development Party, told the Kurdish online news outlet Rudaw last week. The Kurds have been effectively autonomous since 1991, when the U.S. established a no-fly zone over northern Iraq. Turkey, a strong U.S. ally, has long opposed the creation of an independent Kurdistan so that its own eastern region would not be swallowed into it. But Celik's statement indicates that the country may be starting to view an autonomous Kurdistan as a viable option -- a sort of bulwark against spreading extremism within a deeply unstable country.

To add even more support that API reported a big drop in 5.7 million barrel drop in crude supply. We did see a build of 255,000 in Cushing Oklahoma though. The API also said gasoline stocks declined by 48,000 barrels and supplies of distillates rose by 531,000 barrels.

Russia has cut supply of gas to Ukraine but according to the FT the presidents of Russia and Ukraine have discussed the possibility of a ceasefire in the insurgency-torn eastern regions of Ukraine. Of course a cease fire does not mean the natural gas will begin to flow but it may be a sign of progress though we have to remain skeptical. Yesterday oil jumped after reports natural gas pipeline explosion that was carrying Russian natural gas across Ukraine to Europe. The Ukraine government said it suspected it may have been a "terrorist act".

Steamy temperatures should give natural gas a lift. NatGasWeather.com Daily Weather Forecast says that "Very warm to hot conditions are expected again today over the central and eastern US as highs warm into the 90s over many high populations cities such as Washington D.C. and Philadelphia. A weather system will track out of the northern Rockies over the coming days with much colder than normal temperatures. It will eventually attempt to push into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. However, high pressure should hold strong and prevent it from pushing very far into the US while also weakening it. The southern US will continue to warm into 90s and low 100s for quite some time as high pressure dominates. The western US remains much cooler than normal due to a Pacific weather system moving through, but will gradually warm as the week progresses Weather systems will track across the US during the last week of June with areas of showers and thunderstorms. This will lead to temperatures remaining in the 70s and 80s across much of the northern US. High pressure extending over all of the southern US will continue to bring very warm conditions (90-105?F) and moderate to strong cooling demand. There is an increasing threat of hotter temperatures during the first week of July and could impact many high populations areas of the southern and eastern US. Trend: WARMER (especially after June 28th).

The Fed may also move us today. A pop in inflation in the CPI and record beef, egg, poultry prices against an anemic recovery is going to present challenges for the Fed. Not to mention the spike in oil. Gold prices holding steady but platinum and palladium rebounding after the recent strike settlement correction.

You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn! You can also like me on Facebook. Traders save money on fancy software and try out my wildly popular trade levels first! Call me at (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com. If you want to start trading apply by hitting this link https://newaccount.admis.com/?office=269.

Thank you,
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
pflynn@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of The Energy Report.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to the Price Futures Group.

You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pricegroup.com.

Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS.

Aktuelle Kolumnen & Analysen

Auslandsaktien: Beliebte US-Smallcaps
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 23.03.2017
23. März 2017. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Small is beautiful: Der SDAX ist vor wenigen Wochen auf ein neues Allzeithoch geklettert. Auch die US-Nebenwerte, gemessen zum Beispiel am Nebenwerteindex Russell 2000, erreichten Anfang März ein Rekordhoch. Der Russell 2000 bildet die 2.000 kleinsten Unternehmen des Russell 3000 ab, der wiederum die 3.000 größten US-Titel enthält - und damit für 98 Prozent des gesamten US-Aktienmarkts steht. Nach der Wahl von Donald Trump zum neuen US-Präsidenten haben sich Smallcaps überdurchschnittlich entwickelt und konnten die Largecaps hinter sich lassen. ... mehr

DAX erobert die 12.000 zurück – Banger Blick nach Washington
CMC Markets - Marktberichte - 23.03.2017
Noch bleibt an der Börse erst einmal alles beim Alten – der Aufwärtstrend ist weiter intakt. Kleinere Rückschläge werden von denjenigen zum Einstieg genutzt, die bislang aufgrund der Unsicherheiten sehr zögerlich agiert haben. Beim Deutschen Aktienindex hat so die Region um 11.850/11.900 Punkte gehalten, der Index konnte mit etwas Rückenwind von der Wall Street am Nachmittag sogar die Marke von 12.000 Punkten zurückerobern. Allerdings steht eine Entscheidung noch aus. ... mehr

Euwax Trends: Steigende Inflation trübt Konsumlaune - Ölpreise stabilisieren sich – DAX legt leicht zu
Börse Stuttgart - Marktberichte - 23.03.2017
Der Index für das Konsumklima in Deutschland ist im April um 0,2 auf 9,8 Punkte gefallen. Wie die Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung (GfK) zu ihrer Umfrage unter 2.000 Verbrauchern berichtete, ist dies der tiefste Stand seit November. Ökonomen hatten im Schnitt mit einem stabilen Wert gerechnet. Den Marktforschern zufolge hätten vor allem die zuletzt spürbar gestiegenen Preise für Energie bei den Konsumenten Spuren hinterlassen. Dadurch würden sie die Kaufkraft ihrer Einkünfte beeinträchtigt sehen. Die Teuerungsrate hatte im Februar mit 2,2 Prozent das höchste Niveau seit viereinhalb Jahren erreicht, während sie 2016 im Jahresschnitt nur bei 0,5 Prozent lag. ... mehr

Baader Bond Markets: Wachsende Zweifel an D. T.
K. Stopp I Baader Markets - Bonds - 23.03.2017
Dass D. T., der Unberechenbare, die Ergebnisse einer aktuellen Umfrage, wonach nur noch 37% der Amerikaner seine Arbeit als positiv bewerten, postwendend als „Fake News“ abtut, mag nicht verwundern. Offensichtlich aber weht dem US-Präsidenten der Wind doch stärker ins Gesicht, als er gemeinhin wahrhaben möchte. Nicht nur dass der Chef des FBI, James Comey, die Abhörvorwürfe gegen Vorgänger Barack Obama als „Nonsense“ brandmarkte und damit Trump der Lüge bezichtigte. Nein, auch die magische Kraft des Faktischen scheint sich gegen Trump zu wenden. ... mehr

DAX stabilisiert sich um 11.900 – Trumps erste große Prüfung
CMC Markets - Marktberichte - 23.03.2017
Die Blicke der Investoren sind heute eindeutig nach Washington gerichtet. Es geht darum, ob Donald Trump seinen ersten Test besteht, den mehrheitlich mit Republikanern besetzten Kongress von seinen durchaus kontroversen Plänen zu überzeugen. Heute geht es um die Reform des Gesundheitssystems. Nicht wirklich ein Thema, auf dass die Börsen im Normalfall reagieren sollten. Allerdings werden sie aus dem Ausgang dieser Abstimmung Rückschlüsse auf die weiteren, wirtschaftlich viel wichtigeren Projekte wie die angekündigte Steuerreform ziehen. ... mehr

WTI: Notierungen geben weiter nach!
RoboForex I B. Wachsmann - Commodities - 23.03.2017
In der Vorwoche hatten die Erdölpreise einen starken Preisrutsch zu verkraften. So viel WTI deutlich unter die 50,- USD Marke zurück und konnte diese im Wochenverlauf auch nur temporär wieder zurückerobern. Nachdem die Haltung der Opec als Hauptargument für den Preisrutsch genannt wurde, kamen am Dienstag wieder positive Meldungen von Seiten des Ölkartells. Demnach erwägt die Opec die Produktionskürzungen über den Juni hinaus zu verlängern. Hierbei gilt es aber noch ein wichtiges Problem zu lösen. Dass hier nach wie vor Bedarf besteht, zeigten am gestrigen Nachmittag abermals die US-Erdöllagerbestände. ... mehr

Aktienmärkte: Risikoaversion nimmt wieder zu
Helaba Floor Research - Indizes - 23.03.2017
Frankreich: Laut Umfrage wird Kandidat Macron die Wahl klar gewinnen Heute endet die Bieterfrist für den vorerst letzten gezielten Langfristtender (TLTRO II), der von der Europäischen Zentralbank durchgeführt wird. Die Zuteilung erfolgt morgen. Spekulationen auf eine baldige Rückführung des Anleihekaufvolumens und auf steigende Leitzinsen lassen den Zinssatz von maximal 0 %, zu denen Geschäftsbanken über den TLTRO II Geld für vier Jahre aufnehmen können, attraktiv erscheinen. Allerdings spricht der bereits sehr hohe Liquiditätsüberschuss gegen eine zusätzliche Mittelaufnahme. ... mehr

Fixed Income Daily - GfK-Konsumklimaindex im Fokus
Helaba Floor Research - Bonds - 23.03.2017
Asiatische Aktienmärkte uneinheitlich – China schwächer. Ölpreis (WTI-Future) leicht erholt, wieder über 48 USD/Fass. Heute steht der GfK-Konsumklimaindex zur Veröffentlichung an. Im Vormonat kam es zu einem leichten Stimmungsrückgang, wofür die Marktforscher der Nürnberger Gesellschaft für Konsumforscher den Inflationsanstieg verantwortlich gemacht haben. Darüber hinaus könnte die protektionistische Politik von US-Präsident Trump Arbeitnehmer exportorientierter Unternehmen verunsichert haben. ... mehr

FX Daily - EUR/USD - Erwartete Trading-Range: 1,0700 – 1,0850.
Helaba Floor Research - Forex - 23.03.2017
Stimmungsindikatoren und realwirtschaftliche Entwicklungen standen zuletzt nicht im Einklang. Dies gilt für die USA, denn dort haben ISM-Indizes, regionale Fed-Umfragen oder auch das Mittelstandsbarometer im Nachgang zur Präsidentschaftswahl teilweise deutlich zugelegt. Im Kontrast dazu steht die Indikation zum BIP-Wachstum des ersten Quartals. Das von der Fed in Atlanta auf Basis einer Reihe von monatlichen Datenveröffentlichungen ermittelte GDPNow steht aktuell bei einer Wachstumsrate von nur 0,9 %. Inzwischen ist diese Diskrepanz auch von Fed-Vertretern bemerkt worden. ... mehr

Vier neue ETFs: US-Unternehmen mit Fokus auf vier verschiedene Branchen
Börse Frankfurt - Trading Business - 23.03.2017
23. März 2017. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Blackrock erweitert das ETF-Angebot auf Xetra und dem Frankfurter Parketthandel. Mit den vier neuen iShares ETFs erhalten Anleger die Möglichkeit, gezielt in die größten Unternehmen einzelner Sektoren am US-amerikanischen Aktienmarkt zu investieren, gemessen an der Marktkapitalisierung. Die vier ETFs investieren in Unternehmen verschiedener, nach dem "Global Industry Classification Standard" (GICS) definierter Branchen. ... mehr

Buchtipp

Faszination Devisen
Die Gewinn- möglichkeiten mit Devisen sind enorm. Nie zuvor war es für den Privatanleger einfacher und lukrativer, mit den Kursschwankungen und Trends von Wechselkursen eigenständig und ohne hohe Gebühren Geld zu verdienen. ...weiter

Broker

Anzeige eToro - Trading-Verluste können Ihre Einlagen übersteigen. Beachten Sie die Risikoaufklärung auf der Seite des Brokers!

Sponsor

Anzeigen

<