Kolumnen & Analysen Devisen

The Energy Report - Refinery in Flames!
Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 18.06.2014

While Iraq's oil exports surge the fall of the Baiji Refinery is to ISIS terrorists is not providing any comfort to the global market. The refinery which supplies Bagdad with gasoline and diesel shows that the situation in Iraq is not getting better. Oil companies are pulling out nonessential personnel even in the south of the country where at least so far things are relatively held. Oil companies are trying to export while the exporting is good yet the possibility of an oil shock is rising the south of Iraq starts to fall. While reports by the Energy Information Administration showing that North Dakota oil output hit a record 1million barrels a day, will the Fed acknowledge the risk and signal a pause in the taper if things get worse? Or will it be oil prices spikes are transitory? In the meantime oil and products are back on the rise.

While the Iraqi Army tries with some success to defend Baghdad, President Obama decided against immediate airstrikes allowing Sunni extremists to continue to commandeer US military equipment and execute captured soldiers. Dow Jones reported that parts of Iraq's main oil refinery were in flames Wednesday as government forces fought to repel militants who gained partial control of the oil facility, Iraqi security officials said. Sunni militant fighters behind a week-old offensive that has claimed several major cities and towns in northern Iraq attacked the refinery in the northern city of Baiji overnight and seized part of the installation, an oil ministry official in the country's north said. The official said employees fled the refinery as it came under attack, the latest in a weeklong siege of the oil hub. The fighting over the main source of Iraq's refined fuel for its domestic market doesn't affect production or exports from the country's chief oil fields and facilities in the south, where militants haven't reached.

In the southern parts of Iraq its business as usual. Bloomberg News reported that Iraq's oil exports from its southern terminals in the Persian Gulf are poised to surge at a time when fighting has plunged the country's north into chaos and Islamist militias are advancing toward Baghdad. Exports of Basrah Light Crude, the country's main grade, may reach about 2.8 million barrels a day next month, according to a preliminary loading plan obtained by Bloomberg News yesterday. That's 11 percent more than this year's average and would be close to a three-decade high of 2.799 million barrels that Iraq said were exported from all its ports each day in February. OPEC's second-largest producer shipped 5.43 million barrels from Basrah on June 11, Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said in Vienna the next day.

Yet can that continue if Bagdad is staved of oil products and cities continue to fall. Baghdad citizens may lose. In the mean-time the Kurds are taking full advantage of this. While watching the Iraqi oil fall apart the Kurds moved in and took over oil and production facilities.

Reuters reports that Iraqi Kurdistan has built a link connecting Kirkuk to its newly-built pipeline to Turkey, its minister of natural resources said, potentially cementing Kurdish control over the northern oil hub and reducing its reliance on Baghdad. The link could allow the Kurds to start exports of Kirkuk crude oil through their own network, giving them a major source of independent revenue and boosting any ambitions of sovereign statehood as Iraq falls into increasing disarray. The new link connects Kirkuk's Ivana dome to the Khurmala dome out of which the Kurdish pipeline runs. "That blue line was finished," Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) minister for natural resources, told a conference in London, pointing to a map of the pipelines. Baghdad's military retreat from the north under a lightning assault led by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) last week allowed the KRG's Peshmerga forces to seize control of long-disputed Kirkuk and its oil reserves - the potential economic lynchpin of a sovereign Kurdish entity. But the main 600,000 bpd Kirkuk pipeline, which accounted for the bulk of Iraq's northern crude oil exports, has been offline since March following insurgent attacks. Attempts to repair it have been thwarted by Islamic militants in the region, who have targeted engineers trying to fix sections of the line that pass through territory outside KRG control. With Baghdad busy fighting ISIL, the Kurds are pushing ahead with oil exports that could help bolster their autonomy. Oil exports will increase to 200,000-250,000 barrels per day in July, and then to 400,000 bpd by the year.

What is more in a stunning development, Turkey may for the first time ever support a Kurdish state. Ryan Grim reported that "In a statement that could have a dramatic impact on regional politics in the Middle East, a spokesman for Turkey's ruling party recently told a Kurdish media outlet that the Kurds in Iraq have the right to self-determination. The statement has been relatively overlooked so far, but could signal a shift in policy as Turkey has long been a principal opponent of Kurdish independence, which would mean a partitioning of Iraq. "The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of the entity they are living in," Huseyin Celik, a spokesman for the Justice and Development Party, told the Kurdish online news outlet Rudaw last week. The Kurds have been effectively autonomous since 1991, when the U.S. established a no-fly zone over northern Iraq. Turkey, a strong U.S. ally, has long opposed the creation of an independent Kurdistan so that its own eastern region would not be swallowed into it. But Celik's statement indicates that the country may be starting to view an autonomous Kurdistan as a viable option -- a sort of bulwark against spreading extremism within a deeply unstable country.

To add even more support that API reported a big drop in 5.7 million barrel drop in crude supply. We did see a build of 255,000 in Cushing Oklahoma though. The API also said gasoline stocks declined by 48,000 barrels and supplies of distillates rose by 531,000 barrels.

Russia has cut supply of gas to Ukraine but according to the FT the presidents of Russia and Ukraine have discussed the possibility of a ceasefire in the insurgency-torn eastern regions of Ukraine. Of course a cease fire does not mean the natural gas will begin to flow but it may be a sign of progress though we have to remain skeptical. Yesterday oil jumped after reports natural gas pipeline explosion that was carrying Russian natural gas across Ukraine to Europe. The Ukraine government said it suspected it may have been a "terrorist act".

Steamy temperatures should give natural gas a lift. NatGasWeather.com Daily Weather Forecast says that "Very warm to hot conditions are expected again today over the central and eastern US as highs warm into the 90s over many high populations cities such as Washington D.C. and Philadelphia. A weather system will track out of the northern Rockies over the coming days with much colder than normal temperatures. It will eventually attempt to push into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. However, high pressure should hold strong and prevent it from pushing very far into the US while also weakening it. The southern US will continue to warm into 90s and low 100s for quite some time as high pressure dominates. The western US remains much cooler than normal due to a Pacific weather system moving through, but will gradually warm as the week progresses Weather systems will track across the US during the last week of June with areas of showers and thunderstorms. This will lead to temperatures remaining in the 70s and 80s across much of the northern US. High pressure extending over all of the southern US will continue to bring very warm conditions (90-105?F) and moderate to strong cooling demand. There is an increasing threat of hotter temperatures during the first week of July and could impact many high populations areas of the southern and eastern US. Trend: WARMER (especially after June 28th).

The Fed may also move us today. A pop in inflation in the CPI and record beef, egg, poultry prices against an anemic recovery is going to present challenges for the Fed. Not to mention the spike in oil. Gold prices holding steady but platinum and palladium rebounding after the recent strike settlement correction.

You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn! You can also like me on Facebook. Traders save money on fancy software and try out my wildly popular trade levels first! Call me at (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com. If you want to start trading apply by hitting this link https://newaccount.admis.com/?office=269.

Thank you,
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
pflynn@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of The Energy Report.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to the Price Futures Group.

You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pricegroup.com.

Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS.

Aktuelle Kolumnen & Analysen

Aktienmärkte: Wohin geht die Reise?
Helaba Floor Research - Indizes - 28.04.2017
Aktienmarkt Der DAX zeigte sich am Donnerstag erneut uninspiriert. Schlussendlich war ein Abschlag in Höhe von 0,23 % auf 12.443,79 Zähler zu verbuchen. Die von der US-Steuerreform erhofften Impulse blieben aus. Ebenso scheint der Effekt der Frankreich-Wahl (erste Runde) zunächst abzuebben. Auch die bisherigen Quartalsberichte waren nicht in der Lage, für eine neue Dynamik an den Märkten zu sorgen. Hingegen stieg die Vola (auf Basis des V-DAX) zuletzt vom deutlich reduzierten Niveau (13,91 vs. 13,50) wieder an. ... mehr

Fixed Income Daily - EZB lässt Expansionsgrad wie erwartet unverändert
Helaba Floor Research - Bonds - 28.04.2017
Die Europäische Zentralbank hat weder die Geldpolitik noch die Forward Guidance verändert. Mit den verbesserten Konjunkturaussichten ist eine Anpassung im Juni aber nicht ausgeschlossen. Dann könnte der Passus gestrichen werden, wonach die Leitzinsen im Bedarfsfall noch weiter gesenkt werden könnten. Zu den Erwartungen tragen unter anderem steigende Inflationsraten bei. Vorläufigen Angaben zufolge ist im April die Jahresteuerungsrate in Spanien EU-harmonisiert um 0,5 %-Punkte auf 2,6 % gestiegen und in Deutschland um ebenfalls 0,5 %-Punkte auf 2,0 %. ... mehr

FX Daily - EUR/USD - Erwartete Trading-Range: 1,0820 – 1,0950
Helaba Floor Research - Forex - 28.04.2017
Japan: Industrieproduktion März -2,1 % VM, +3,3 % VJ – schwächer als erwartet. Aktienmärkte in Asien geben leicht nach; Ölpreis (LCF) steigt auf 49,5 USD/Fass. Die Europäische Zentralbank ließ den monetären Expansionsgrad wie erwartet unverändert. Das Wording hingegen fällt etwas zuversichtlicher aus, wenngleich die Formulierung, wonach die Zinsen auch auf ein tieferes Niveau sinken könnten, beibehalten wurde. Dreh- und Angelpunkt für die EZB-Geldpolitik scheint aktuell die Kerninflation zu sein. Diese ist zwar nicht die Zielgröße der EZB, aber in der Argumentation der Notenbanker hat sie zuletzt einen größeren Raum eingenommen. ... mehr

DAX legt kurze Rast ein
IG Markets Research - Marktberichte - 28.04.2017
28.04.2017 – 07:25 Uhr (Werbemitteilung): Die jüngste Kursentwicklung war schon recht beeindruckend. Gewinnmitnahmen hielten sich bislang jedoch in Grenzen. Im Augenblick scheinen sich die Anleger hierzulande nicht gerne von ihren Dividendenpapieren trennen zu wollen. In Anbetracht der weiterhin andauernden Niedrigzinsphase keine allzu große Überraschung. Ausblick Heute stehen in Großbritannien und den Vereinigten Staaten das Bruttoinlandsprodukt für das erste Quartal sowie die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone für April im Terminkalender. ... mehr

Hüfners Wochenkommentar: "Fallstricke der Volatilität"
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 27.04.2017
27. April 2017. MÜNCHEN (Assenagon). So viel Bewegung an den Finanzmärkten wie Anfang dieser Woche gab es selten. Der DAX erhöhte sich nach den französischen Wahlen an einem Tag um mehr als 3 Prozent, der französische CAC 40 sogar um über 4 Prozent. Die Rendite zehnjähriger Bundesanleihen ging von 0,27 Prozent auf 0,38 Prozent nach oben. Der Euro-/Dollarkurs stieg von 1,07 auf 1,09. Und was tat der Index, der die Schwankungen an den Finanzmärkten messen soll? Er schoss nicht etwa, wie man hätte vermuten können, nach oben. Er brach im Gegenteil kräftig ein. Er signalisierte also abnehmende Bewegungen. ... mehr

DAX weiter abwartend – Macron-Rally wird noch verdaut
CMC Markets - Marktberichte - 27.04.2017
Wie erwartet signalisierte die Europäische Zentralbank heute die Beibehaltung des Status Quo in ihrer Geldpolitik. Das war angesichts der noch nicht entschiedenen Präsidentschaftswahl in Frankreich wenig überraschend. Denn auch wenn Macron gewinnen sollte, wonach es im Moment aussieht, hätte er noch keine Mehrheit im Parlament und die politischen Probleme in der Europa-Politik wären auch noch nicht gelöst. Mario Draghis Abwarten ist Ausdruck der Tatsache, dass er weiterhin unverändert eine geldpolitische Stütze für ein unsicheres politisches Umfeld anbieten muss. ... mehr

Euwax Trends: Trumps Steuerpläne – Zahlenflut – DAX verschnauft – EZB im Blick
Börse Stuttgart - Marktberichte - 27.04.2017
Die gestern Abend vorgelegten Steuerpläne von US-Präsident Donald Trump haben dem Aktienmarkt zunächst keine neuen Impulse verschafft, aber sie haben auch nicht enttäuscht. Die Regierung in Washington will vor allem die Unternehmen massiv entlasten. Die Firmensteuer soll von 35 auf 15 Prozent gesenkt werden. Abgaben auf im Ausland erwirtschaftete Erträge sollen ebenfalls geringer ausfallen. Eine Importsteuer sei nicht geplant. ... mehr

Auslandsaktien: Die Roboter kommen
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 27.04.2017
27. April 2017. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Anfang dieser Woche hat die Hannover-Messe ihre Tore geöffnet - weltweit die größte Industriemesse. Neben effizienten Energiesystemen und Industrie 4.0 sind auch Roboter sowie die sogenannten Cobots Schwerpunkt: Diese neue Generation der Roboter ist flexibel, selbstlernend und arbeitet mit dem Menschen zusammen, daher auch der Name Cobot für "Collaborative Robots". Prognosen des Branchenverbands International Federation of Robotics zufolge sollen allein bis 2019 weltweit rund 1,4 Millionen neue Industrieroboter in den Fabriken Einzug halten, darunter auch viele Cobots. ... mehr

Baader Bond Markets: Wieviel Feingefühl hat Mario Draghi?
K. Stopp I Baader Markets - Bonds - 27.04.2017
Heute ist es wieder soweit. Der Rat der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) trifft sich zu seiner turnusmäßigen Sitzung und entscheidet über die weitere Geldpolitik. Sicherlich werden hierbei auch die kritischen Diskussionsbeiträge anlässlich der Jahrestagung von Internationalem Währungsfonds (IWF) und Weltbank thematisiert. Marktbeobachter gehen allerdings davon aus, dass sich an der bisherigen Forward Guidance nichts ändern und dies von EZB-Chef Mario Draghi auch so vertreten wird. Jedoch besteht die Möglichkeit, dass Nuancen in der Wortwahl angepasst werden, was wiederum auf eine erste vorsichtige Abkehr von der ultralockeren Geldpolitik hindeuten könnte. ... mehr

DAX leicht im Minus – EZB dürfte sich zurückhalten
CMC Markets - Marktberichte - 27.04.2017
Die Regierung Trump verkündete den Märkten gestern nichts, was sie nicht bereits wussten. Nach anfänglichen Gewinnen drehten die Kurse an der Wall Street am Ende ins Minus. Dies wirft einen langen Schatten auf den heutigen Handel in Europa. Der Deutsche Aktienindex dementsprechend im Minus – der Widerstand bei 12.500 Punkten konnte zunächst nicht überwunden werden. In den Kursen sind schon viele positive Nachrichten eingepreist. Daher muss schon viel passieren, um die Rally am Laufen zu halten und eine früher oder später einsetzende Korrektur zu verhindern. ... mehr

Buchtipp

Faszination Devisen
Die Gewinn- möglichkeiten mit Devisen sind enorm. Nie zuvor war es für den Privatanleger einfacher und lukrativer, mit den Kursschwankungen und Trends von Wechselkursen eigenständig und ohne hohe Gebühren Geld zu verdienen. ...weiter

Broker

Anzeige eToro - Trading-Verluste können Ihre Einlagen übersteigen. Beachten Sie die Risikoaufklärung auf der Seite des Brokers!

Sponsor

Anzeigen

<