Kolumnen & Analysen Devisen

The Energy Report - Al-Qaeda Is On the Run
Phil Flynn I Price Group - Commodities - 13.06.2014

We have got Al-Qaeda is on the run. The problem is that they are running over cities in Iraq driving oil to the highest level of the year. The southern oil regions of Iraq are still pumping and exporting oil but the threat by ISIS and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which are the successor organizations to al- Qaeda in Iraq driving the risk premium in oil. ISIS threatened to continue their assault on Bagdad.

While President Obama says that all options are on the table the void that was left by a premature pull-out in Iraq is becoming glaringly obvious. White House spokesman Jay Carny says that there will be no boots on the ground is making it difficult to know what the White House strategy is. Iran of course has no qualms about putting troops on the ground and has already deployed their Revolutionary guard forces to try to stop the Sunni extremists from over running the rest of the country. Reports are that Iran helped retake the city of Tikrit. Turkey also has warned the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) it will retaliate if any of its 80 nationals kidnapped by insurgents in northern Iraq are harmed. The violence is putting vital supply at risk and the markets will respond to any late breaking developments either higher or lower. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has asked for US help but so far it is unclear what the US plans to do.

The northern oil fields have been taken yet that area of the country was not really active. There had been damaged pipelines due to sabotage. Basra in the south of Iraq seems to be operating normally and any attack on Bagdad may be met with much tougher resistance. Yet with politics in Iraq very muddled it is unlikely that we will see the type of leadership that can not only withstand the current threats but also the ongoing internal strife that will no doubt last far longer that whatever happens over the next 48 hours. Iraq's coveted 3.5 million barrels a day of high quality oil will be missed but also we will see reduced expectations for further export growth that the market was already trying to price in. Instead of dreams of 4 million or 8 million barrels of exports in the future we have to hope that they can maintain these 3.5 million barrels of oil a day which was a 30 year high.

In the short term the market will look to the Saudis and the US to fill the void that might be left if Iraq's supply is disrupted. The US may not only use its Strategic Oil reserve it could also lift the export ban on oil to try to calm global markets and prevent an oil shock that could dive the world back into recession.( assuming you believe we really ever got out of recession.) Bottom line this is the most significant threat to the global oil market we have seen in sometime and we could see prices get close to all-time highs if the fighting continues to spread, not only in Iraq but across the entire region.

Natural Gas got a wakeup call as the injection into storage failed to meet expectations and raised doubts about the ability of the market to drive production to levels over usage that will be sufficient to get storage levels to comfortable levels ahead of next winter.

Platts reported "The NYMEX July natural gas futures contract closed 25.4 cents higher to a 4.762/MMBtu settlement on Thursday after the US Energy Information Administration reported a lower injection to storage inventories than most expected, prompting fresh concerns about long-term refills. The contract reclaimed the 20.2 cents it lost trading through Wednesday this week and then some. The EIA on Thursday reported a 107 Bcf injection to storage for the week ended June 6, below most analyst expectations ranging from 109 to 113 Bcf. What a difference an injection makes," said Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group senior market analyst. "It's changed the mood of the market. "Once we fall below [storage] expectations, then the big picture begins to come in," Flynn said. When the weather is cooler, "we need to see the kind of injections that blow away our expectations, and we just can't see these kind of smaller injections like today" without sparking concerns over the seasonal refill. "Today's lower-than-anticipated release broke a seven-week streak of outsized injections and triggered immediate futures buying that reversed the 4% week-to-date loss," BNP Paribas analyst Teri Viswanath said. "Prices continue to drift higher as traders are squeezed from their short positions, and bullish momentum continues," in a mostly technical move, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at Gelber & Associates. Today's prompt-month surge "shows that there is significant buying pressure in this market and that it will have to stay consistently cool this summer in order to keep prices near $4.50," Calder added. "It's not what the bears want to see," said Elaine Levin, president of broker PowerHouse. She also noted that the energy complex as a whole was moving higher Thursday, notably on concerns regarding new strife in Iraq. "At the moment, uncertainty still rules," Levin said. "Heat will come in and slow storage injections, so for the short term we could move higher." But traders are also eyeing forecasts that increasingly point to the development of an El Nino weather pattern this summer, which could make the winter milder than normal, she noted."

Yet some traders are looking at a heat dome that could develop over the Midwest in Early July. This could not only bring heat but drought. Grains have been hit with a lot of rain but beware about the dog days of summer.

Gold and silver started to run a bit on Iraq. Gold prices hit a three-week high but seemed subdued considering the circumstances. Platinum took a dive on hopes that the strike in South Africa. Bloomberg reported that Palladium futures plunged the most in 11 months and platinum tumbled as mining companies and union officials agreed on a wage pact to present to workers in a bid to end a 20-week strike in South Africa, a leading producer. "In-principle undertakings have been reached" with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. said on behalf of the three largest producers. The metals are used mainly in pollution-control devices in cars. Meats keep rocking! The question is that if the spike in gasoline that may be coming will slow are demand for beef! Stay tuned to Fox Business!

You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn! You can also like me on Facebook. Traders save money on fancy software and try out my wildly popular trade levels first! Call me at (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com. If you want to start trading apply by hitting this link https://newaccount.admis.com/?office=269.

Thank you,
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of The Energy Report.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to the Price Futures Group.

You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pricegroup.com.

Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS.

Aktuelle Kolumnen & Analysen

Sektion US-Märkte & Indizes: Eine bullische Indikation für die kommende Woche, lässt eine Fortsetzung der Erholung erwarten
Formationstrader I S. Grass - Indizes - 25.02.2018
Wochenchart (mittelfristig) Mit einem Wochenhoch bei 2.747 Punkten und einem Wochentief bei 2.697 Punkten konsolidierte der Leitindex S&P 500 die dynamische Erholung seit dem 9. Februar. Die Konsolidierung verlief innerhalb der Handelsspanne der Vorwoche und endete oberhalb der trendbegrenzende Linie des mittelfristigen Aufwärtstrendkanals. Dies ist positiv zu bewerten! ... mehr

Technische Analyse: DAX-Index zum Wochenschluß wenig verändert
Karsten Kagels - Indizes - 25.02.2018
Der abgebildete Wochenchart des DAX-Index zeigt die Kursentwicklung seit November 2016. Wir blicken auf einen Aufwärtstrend, der im Februar 2016 bei einem Indexstand von 8.700 Punkten begann, und im Januar 2018 ein historisches Hoch bei 13.596,89 Punkten erreichte, bei einem aktuellen Wochenschlusskurs von 12.483,79 Punkten. ... mehr

Chartanalyse: Goldpreis konsolidiert weiter unter dem Vorjahreshoch
Karsten Kagels - Commodities - 25.02.2018
Der abgebildete Wochenchart des in New York gehandelten Gold-Futures zeigt die Kursentwicklung seit Juni 2016. Jede abgebildete Kerze (Candlestick) stellt die Kursbewegung einer Woche dar, bei einem aktuellen Kurs von $1.330,5. Aus Sicht des Wochencharts liegt beim Gold-Future eine große Seitwärtsbewegung vor, die sich über die letzten zwei Jahre erstreckt. ... mehr

Technische Analyse: EUR/USD konsolidiert im Aufwärtstrend
Karsten Kagels - Forex - 25.02.2018
EUR/USD Chartanalyse - Trend, Prognose, Aussichten Der abgebildete Wochenchart des Währungspaares Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD Forex) zeigt die Kursbewegung seit Mai 2017. Jede Kurskerze (Candlestick) stellt die Kursentwicklung für eine Woche dar, bei einem aktuellen Kurs von 1,2293. ... mehr

DOW JONES - Entscheidende Marke voraus!
Admiral Markets - Indizes - 24.02.2018
(Markt-)Technische Analyse des Dow Jones-Index DJI30 CFD innerhalb der Handelswoche 08.2018 Der große Aufwärtstrend im Dow-Jones (siehe kobaltblauer diagonaler Linienverlauf) ist mit Überschreitung der 25.300 intakt und befindet sich derzeit in einer untergeordneten Bewegungsphase in Richtung des Hochs bei 25.440. ... mehr

Grüner Fisher: Werden Korrekturen wirklich immer heftiger?
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 23.02.2018
23. Februar 2018. FRANKFURT (Grüner Fisher). Hilfe, Korrektur! Wenn die Volatilität zuschlägt, prasseln negative Schlagzeilen von allen Seiten auf die Anleger ein. Möglichst große Zahlen, mit einem dicken Minus versehen, ziehen die Aufmerksamkeit auf sich. Es gilt, diese vermeintlich großen Zahlen in den korrekten Kontext zu setzen. ... mehr

Anleihen: Zinsanstieg legt Pause ein
Börse Frankfurt - Bonds - 23.02.2018
23. Februar 2018. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Nach vielen Wochen rückläufiger Anleihekurse und anziehender Zinsen ist der Markt in dieser Woche von einer gegenläufigen Bewegung geprägt. "Der Zinsanstieg hier und in den USA scheint erst einmal ausgebremst", stellt Arthur Brunner von der ICF Bank fest. Zwar sei es klar, dass die Zeit der ultralockeren Geldpolitik vorbei sei, eine "krasse" Zinswende werde aber nicht erwartet. ... mehr

4x Report: US-Aktien in ruhigerem Fahrwasser – Walmart, Tokai Carbon und Bouygues im Fokus – Gazprom gefragt
Börse Stuttgart - Marktberichte - 23.02.2018
An den amerikanischen Aktienmärkten könnte diese Woche das Motto lauten: „Wie gewonnen, so zerronnen“, resümierte Marc Pusch von der Baader Bank AG in Stuttgart. Gegenüber der Vorwoche notieren die Indizes leicht im Minus. Die Aktien von Walmart (WKN: 860853) standen in dieser Woche im Mittelpunkt des Geschehens. ... mehr

Euwax Trends: Chance vertan - Dax tritt zum Wochenausklang auf der Stelle - TV Sternchen lässt Snapkurs abstürzen
Börse Stuttgart - Marktberichte - 23.02.2018
Zum Abschluss der Zitterwoche sucht der Dax die Richtung und pendelt um den Schlusskurs vom Donnerstag. Rückenwind kommt von der Börse an der Wall Street. VW legt Eckdaten zum Schlussquartal vor Wichtig heute neben vereinzelten Bilanzen, wie z.B. Volkswagen, auch die Zahlen zum deutschen Wirtschaftswachstum und die europäischen Inflationsdaten. Die US-Börsen hatten am Donnerstag keine gemeinsame Richtung gefunden. ... mehr

Halvers Woche: Zeigt Inflation wieder ihre hässliche Fratze?
Börse Frankfurt - Indizes - 23.02.2018
23. Februar 2018. MÜNCHEN (Baader Bank). Die Happy Hour am Kapitalmarkt - so die Angst vieler Anleger - scheint vorbei zu sein, dafür aber sein Untergang nah. Denn die Inflation werde nach einer gefühlten Ewigkeit wieder sprießen wie Unkraut im Frühling. Und dann würde das Ungemach beginnen. Denn steigt die Teuerung, steigen auch die Zinsen. Schließlich wollen Anleger einen Inflationsausgleich haben. ... mehr


Faszination Devisen
Die Gewinn- möglichkeiten mit Devisen sind enorm. Nie zuvor war es für den Privatanleger einfacher und lukrativer, mit den Kursschwankungen und Trends von Wechselkursen eigenständig und ohne hohe Gebühren Geld zu verdienen. ...weiter


Anzeige eToro - Trading-Verluste können Ihre Einlagen übersteigen. Beachten Sie die Risikoaufklärung auf der Seite des Brokers!