Kolumnen & Analysen Devisen

Get Ready For the Next Crisis!
Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 11.06.2014

The World Bank lowered the global growth outlook and offered a stark warning to perhaps trying to shake the markets out of their compliancy. Bloomberg News reports that The World Bank cut its global growth forecast amid weaker outlooks for the U.S., Russia and China, while calling on emerging markets to strengthen their economies before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The Washington-based lender predicts the world economy will expand 2.8 percent this year, compared with a January projection of 3.2 percent. The U.S. forecast was reduced to 2.1 percent from 2.8 percent while outlooks for Brazil, Russia, India and China were also lowered. The setbacks may be temporary: the 2015 estimate for world economic growth was unchanged at 3.4 percent. "The global economy got off to a bumpy start this year buffeted by poor weather in the United States, financial market turbulence and the conflict in" Ukraine, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report yesterday. "Despite the early weakness, growth is expected to pick up speed as the year progresses."

Yet at the same time The World Bank has warned that now is the time to prepare for the next financial crisis, identifying markets as still "skittish" and vulnerable to slowing global growth. OPEC on the other hand sees no sign of slowing oil demand. OPEC will continue to pump oil and seem to think that instead of cutting production they may have to actually start thinking about adding production. This pressure on OPEC comes even as the US is booming on oil production. According to the Energy Information Administration U.S. crude oil production in May increased to the highest output for any month in 26 years and is on track next year to reach the highest annual production level since 1972.

Yet the disappointing production from Libya, Nigeria and the fact that Sunni militants taking over the City of Mosul in Iraq is suggesting that OPEC had better keep its pedal to the production metal. Bloomberg News reported that Militant fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant seized Mosul after battling government forces for control of the northern Iraqi city, extending their reach over the country as central authority crumbles.

On top of that the deal between Russia and the Ukraine to keep gas flowing is not signed sealed or delivered. The market will watch with keen interest the talks that European Union on a gas-supply deal today after failing to reach agreement in discussions earlier this week. Bloomberg says that negotiations between Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and his Ukrainian counterpart, Yuri Prodan, along with EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger, will restart at 9:30 a.m. in Brussels and will follow bilateral meetings, the European Commission said late yesterday. The talks were postponed from last night because the Russian delegation was scheduled to arrive very late in Brussels, the EU executive said.

The other thing that traders will focus on is the Energy Information Administration supply report. WTI Crude gained on Brent as Cushing oil supply fell once again according to the American Petroleum Institute report. The API reported that Cushing supply fell by 2.1 million barrels last week. Over all crude inventories increased1.45 million barrels in the week June 6 to 383.9 million, compared with Reuters expectations for a decrease of 1.9 million barrels. Refinery crude runs fell by 434,000 barrels per day, API data showed. Gasoline stocks fell by 441,000 barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 843,000-barrels gain. Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 298,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.2-million-barrel gain, the API data showed. U.S. crude imports fell last week by 345,000 barrels per day to 7.4 million bpd.

The Ethanol market and grain traders are getting the USDA Report. Corn bounced a bit even as the market expects that we will see most of the crop planted. The University Of Illinois point out that based on monthly and weekly estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, ethanol production during the March-May quarter this year exceeded that of last year by 7.8 percent. Assuming corn consumption increased by the same amount, corn use during the quarter should have totaled about 1.286 billion bushels. Corn exports may also hit the highest levels since 1981. That is despite the fact that China stopped issuing permits for imports of distillers dried grains (DDGs) from top exporter the United States on concerns they might contain an unapproved genetically-modified organism (GMO) according to a Reuters report.

Bean traders are focused on the old crop. The market is expecting the USDA will lower its U.S. 2013/14 soybean ending stocks forecast from its May figure of 130 million bushels, already a 10-year low. The average estimate among analysts surveyed by Reuters was 127 million bushels.

Wheat had been freefalling. Analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that the USDA would raise its forecast of U.S. 2014/15 wheat ending stocks by 2.2 percent to 552 million bushels, from 540 million in May. Australia lowered its forecast for 2014/15 wheat production by nearly 1 percent on Wednesday as dry weather curbs yields, and warned output could fall further if an El Nino weather pattern forms.

Nat gas got hit on cool weather!

You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn and also like me on Facebook. If you have any questions or if you want to get my wildly popular trade levels call me at (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com . If you want to start trading apply by hitting this link https://newaccount.admis.com/?office=269. Also check me out each day on the Fox Business Network Now on Sirius XM!

Thank you,
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
pflynn@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of The Energy Report.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to the Price Futures Group.

You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pricegroup.com.

Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS.

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