Kolumnen & Analysen Devisen

The Alfred E. Neuman Economy!
Phil Flynn I Price Group - ltfutures - 05.06.2014

The world now has taken on the persona of Alfred E. Neuman. What, I worry? Forget about deflation and countries taking over countries and printing money unlike anything the world has seen before. There is nothing to see here. Keep on moving. Oil is starting to roll lower as geopolitical risk fall as the gas flow in to Ukraine and the global economy has fallen into a zombie like apathy. Fear has taken a holiday and so you just smile with a blank stare and move on. A weak ADP jobs report and hanging around waiting for Mario Draghi to make his rate decision seems to be zapping the life of markets across the globe. Volume is drying up as deflationary pressures are rising and it is not likely that the ECB possible negative rate will shock Europe out of its deflationary apathy.

A weekly drop in demand for both gasoline and diesel also seemed to cool off oil market demand expectations that were elevated because of the strong four week moving average and a less than anticipated drop in Cushing oil supply. Over all the Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week. Another big drop in Gulf Coast inventories and a drop in imports explained the drop. It seems that there is not a lot of incentive to import oil when the Gulf Coast is well supplied. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels last week but are below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 3.7 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 8.8 million barrels. Not the type of numbers that is getting this market exited to move higher at this point.

Yet where we may see some excitement in the energy sector is natural gas. Today we get the EIA report and according to Reuters " U.S. utilities likely put 116 billion cubic feet of natural gas into underground storage caverns last week as utilities rebuild severely depleted heating supplies before next winter, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Wednesday. A 116-bcf injection for the week ended May 30 would top the 114-bcf build seen last week, the 108-bcf build seen in the same week last year and the 93-bcf five-year average. If the forecast is right, it would be the seventh week in a row injections exceeded the five-year norm.

May is traditionally the biggest month for stock builds and additions over the last four weeks have exceeded the year ago and five-year average. Utilities have stockpiled 399 bcf of gas over the last four weeks, compared to 357 bcf in the same period in 2013 and 337 bcf for the five-year average.

Even with the 116-bcf forecast build, overall gas in storage will remain at an 11-year low for this time of year as utilities attempt to replace most of the record 3.0 trillion cubic feet of gas withdrawn from storage over the past winter to keep homes and businesses warm. That however would still be well below the 3.8 tcf five-year norm and would be the lowest amount of gas in storage at the start of a heating season since 2005.

This week's injection forecast would bring total gas in storage to 1.496 tcf. That total would be 33 percent lower than a year earlier, and 38 percent below the five-year norm for this time of year. Despite bigger than normal stock builds, some analysts warn the pace of injections has not been enough to avoid price spikes and shortages next winter. Other analysts however argue that record gas production, especially from shale plays, means utilities no longer need to store as much gas for the winter as in the past. (HOW DID THAT WORK OUT LAST WINTER FOR THEM?)

If utilities were to store gas at just the normal level for the rest of the injection season, stocks would only reach 2.9 tcf by the end of October, the lowest since 2000! The Reuters poll had 24 participants, with injection estimates ranging from 107 bcf to 125 bcf. The median estimate and the average were both 116 bcf.

Gold prices are hanging around as volatility is falling as the world is taking its cues from Alfred E. Neuman, What, me worry? Bloomberg reports that Investors are too busy pushing stock prices to all-time highs to bother with gold, sending bullion's price fluctuations to the lowest in almost 14 months. They say that the metal's 60-day historical volatility dropped to 12.2 today, the lowest since April 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bullion futures traded in a range of about $11 this week, compared with about $51 last week. On top of that gold's open interest fell to a five-year low in April and the value of exchange-traded funds backed by bullion contracted by $2.6 billion in May, the largest drop this year. The metal's appeal as a haven diminished as U.S. equities surged and tension between Ukraine and Russia eased. More than $1.1 trillion was added to the value of global stock markets last month.

You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn and also like me on Facebook. If you have any questions or if you want to get my wildly popular trade levels call me at (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com . If you want to start trading apply by hitting this link https://newaccount.admis.com/?office=269. Also check me out each day on the Fox Business Network Now on Sirius XM!

Thank you,
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of The Energy Report.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to the Price Futures Group.

You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pricegroup.com.

Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS.

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