Kolumnen & Analysen Devisen

The Phil Flynn Energy Report - Shale Rocks!
Phil Flynn I Price Group - Commodities - 04.11.2013

Shale production continues to rock the global oil market and is making our target of $88 a barrel looking more likely any day. Oil once crossing $100 a barrel, which I equated to crossing the Rubicon, has its biggest monthly drop of the year. Oh sure some will try to tell you that it is all about the fed tapering and strong manufacturing data but really we know it is because shale rocks!

Even Germany is reassessing its outlook on the impact of the US oil production. Reuters reports that "the U-S.-led shale boom will have a lasting impact on global energy prices and push crude oil prices down to $80 a barrel, according to an analysis by Germany's BND intelligence agency. The BND said the U.S. shale boom would have a greater impact on global markets than it predicted.

Of course drivers are already seeing prices fall in what is a new era of lower gas prices. As I have written before the rise in US oil production and the change in our energy mix will usher in a new era of gas prices. Obviously on a day to day or week to week basis those prices can be impacted by storms and geo-political and refinery events but the longer term trend is lower and it is going to be a big boom for the US economy.

The Business Insider says that "Falling energy prices are contributing to gains in real wealth and income: Retail gasoline prices have declined more than 30 cents / gallon over the last two months, to $3.28/gallon as of Thursday, according to the national average pump price compiled for AAA. November gasoline futures have declined by a similar amount."

We estimate that the CPI for gasoline declined by roughly 3% to 4% in October, after seasonal adjustment. If retail prices hold near current levels, the CPI for gasoline in November would be roughly unchanged after seasonal adjustment. Over the last eight weeks, the spot price of WTI has declined approximately $15 to near $95/barrel.

They go on to say that final sales to private domestic purchasers will improve from 2.3% in Q3 to 3.2% in Q4 thanks to a jump to 3% from 1.7% in personal consumption expenditures, which in turn should be, "aided by falling energy prices and large increases in housing and equity wealth." The group is holding Q4 GDP forecasts at 1.7%, citing "the government shutdown, ongoing and previously anticipated declines in federal spending, and a negative swing in inventory investment that we expect will subtract approximately 3/4 of a percentage point from GDP growth." Overall, they say, GDP growth will remain "moderate in the near term."

Bloomberg Reports that " In a China's Communist Party leaders will enter a policy-making summit this week with the economy on an upswing, services and manufacturing surveys show government on an upswing, services and manufacturing surveys show.

A non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (CPMINMAN) rose to the highest level this year in October, a government report showed yesterday. The increase follows faster-than-estimated growth in two manufacturing indexes last week. Signs of sustained strength in the world's second-largest economy may give President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang more confidence in tackling reforms. At the same time, excessive credit growth, rising local-government debt and weaker export momentum may cap a stronger recovery from a two-quarter slowdown. "Growth momentum will still be relatively robust" in the fourth quarter, said Lu Ting, head of Greater China economics at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. "The government will tone down its pro-growth rhetoric but there won't be a significant tightening of monetary policy as new leaders still need a stable economic and financial environment to consolidate their power base." Lu estimates gross domestic product will rise 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, down from 7.8 percent in the July-September period. China's top party officials will meet in Beijing from Nov. 9-12 to map out a blueprint for reform as the country heads for its slowest growth in more than two decades.

GDP will increase 7.6 percent this year, according to the median estimate of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month. That's down from 7.7 percent in 2012 and the same pace as 1999, which was the weakest expansion since 1990. Growth may slide to 7.4 percent in 2014, according to the median projection of 47 analysts.

Oil Is Tanking! Did You Get It? You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn Also like me on Facebook. If you have any questions or if you want to get my wildly popular trade levels call me at (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com If you want to start trading apply by hitting this link https://newaccount.admis.com/?office=269 Also check me out each day on the Fox Business Network now on Sirius XM!

Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
pflynn@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of The Energy Report.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to the Price Futures Group.

You can read Phil’s daily market analysis and blogs at www.pricegroup.com.

Phil’s commitment to and experience in futures trading is documented in two books, The Mind of a Trader (Financial Times/Pitman,1997), and Trading Online (publisher, date), both by Alpesh B. Patel. Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended DaleyCollege in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS.

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