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Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 30 July 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - Forex - 30.07.2010
Overview
Stocks head into the final day of July with the best monthly gain in a year, yet July’s hot performance has only sparked debate about what August will bring. The key data point Friday is second quarter GDP, expected to show 2.5 percent growth. Even though it’s backward looking, economists have been looking forward to it for weeks as they’ve fine-tuned their estimates, based on a surprisingly choppy data stream.
Stocks traded wobbly Thursday. A firm open turned into a decline and a triple digit Dow loss by midday. However, the market staged a comeback, and the Dow finished the day down just 30 points at 10,467, and the S&P 500 was 4 points lower at 1101
Currency News
EUR/USD
EUR/USD: Dips To 1.3045 Strike Supported, 1.3125 Key Topside
EUR/USD has failed to retest the 1.3107 Thursday peak overnight. However, spot still trades close to the 1.31s, with dips below the 1.3050 former barrier level attracting fresh buyers in Asia. 1.3046 marks the overnight lows but returning London dealers note more buy interest into the 1.30-mark, which should keep dips supported in the short-term
GBPUSD
Consolidating Gains, US Q2 GDP Estimate Today – Cable has respected today’s 1.5597-1.5639 Asian session range since the European open, against a big-picture backdrop of gain consolidation (1.5150 was the July 22 low). 1.5580-1.5663 was yesterday’s range, with the peak of that range marking a five-month high.
Recently contrasting UK and US data (strong versus weak) is helping underpin GBP/USD, inclusive of last Friday’s near double-the-forecast 1.1% ONS estimate of UK Q2 GDP growth. The advance estimate of annualized US Q2 GDP is due at 12:30GMT today. It is forecast at 2.5%, versus 2.7% in Q1. St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard says the risk of deflation in the US has risen somewhat compared with the beginning of this year (Nikkei/Reuters).
1.5688 (Feb 18 high) and 1.5700 (Digital and GBP call option-related level) are sterling resistance levels beyond 1.5663 (there are 1.5700 option expiries late next week). 1.5545 is a sub-1.5580 support point. 1.5545 was Wednesday’s low, plumbed after BoE Governor King told the UK TSC that “MPC debate is about appropriate degree of stimulus not applying brakes” (Reuters). A two-day MPC meeting takes place next week (Wednesday-Thursday).
UK consumer confidence has fallen for the fifth consecutive month to an 11- month low of minus 22, from minus 19 previously, according to GfK. It was forecast at minus 20
USD/JPY
Steadier After Govt Jaw-Boning, Stops Still Sub-86.25 – USD/JPY traded down to as low as 86.25 in early afternoon Tokyo trading with lower US yields overnight, more dovish Fed-speak and early comments from A DPJ official that the government should favor easier monetary policy over intervention to keep JPY from rising further the catalysts for moves lower. Stops, selling in some JPY crosses from both investors and exporters and thin conditions all helped to get USD/JPY down to its low. Bidding interest was seen on the way down and especially at 86.25, leaving stops below this level intact (86.27 was the spike low seen on July 16, and stops below 86.25 had been tipped for some time). Bids trail down to 86.00, a presumed option barrier level, but more stops are eyed below here. Topside, offering interest looks to be building ahead of 87.00 now. USD/JPY currently trades 86.48/49 with verbal intervention from both FinMin Noda and DepFinMin Ikeda that they were closely eyeing FX moves having brought back some measure of stability. The early Asia high was 86.99
Stock Market
US Markets
* Chipmakers weigh on Nasdaq
* Exxon Mobil profit tops estimates, shares still slip
* Fed’s Bullard warns of Japan-like quagmire
* Indexes down: Dow 0.3 pct, S&P 0.4 pct, Nasdaq 0.6 pct
U.S. stocks sagged in volatile trading on Thursday after weak outlooks from technology companies and downbeat comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors little reason to buy. The market has struggled to make headway this week. The S&P 500 fell for a third straight day and has run into resistance around its 200-day moving average as investors searched for a catalyst to take stocks higher. Friday’s Commerce Department report on second-quarter gross domestic product will be another marker for the strength of the recovery, which appears to be losing steam after several weak economic reports On the economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he is worried about the risks the United States could fall into a Japan-style quagmire of falling prices and investment. That pressured stocks before a late session rebound. Friday’s GDP number is widely expected to show U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter as some investors fret about the possibility of a double-dip recession.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 30.72 points, or 0.29 percent, to 10,467.16. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 4.59 points, or 0.41 percent, to 1,101.54.
The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 12.87 points, or 0.57 percent, to 2,251.69.
European Markets
European shares closed lower on Thursday, with heavyweight banks among the biggest fallers, mirroring weakness on Wall Street and erasing gains from earlier in the session following upbeat corporate earnings. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares closed 0.4 percent lower at 1,047.24 points, having earlier risen to a high of 1,060.96 points, after shares on Wall Street turned lower. Stocks were also pressured as the Euro STOXX 50 index failed to break a key resistance for the third consecutive day.
Asian Markets
* Asian stocks slip on Fed official’s deflation warning
* Dollar on defensive, eyes on U.S. GDP
* MSCI Asia ex-Japan index up 7 percent in July
* Sony shares surge as co returns to profits, boosts outlook
Asian stocks sagged on Friday after U.S. technology companies issued glum outlooks, and after downbeat comments from a Federal Reserve official gave investors reason to book profits after a steady rally this month. The dollar remained on the defensive and was flat near a three-month low against a basket of currencies on concerns that second-quarter GDP data from the United States may disappoint, adding to a raft of U.S economic data in the past month that undershot market expectations. Asian stocks outside Japan were lower with materials and technology shares underperforming while consumer discretionary shares got a boost from Sony Corp’s robust results. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell half a percent. The index is up about 7 percent this month as steady flows into Asian funds continued through the month. Asia ex-Japan equity funds absorbed more than $1 billion in the week ending July 28, their biggest inflow in 14 weeks, with China equity funds enjoying their best since mid-April, according to data from fund tracking firm EPFR Global. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.5 percent as signs that the U.S. recovery was faltering outweighed upbeat domestic earnings. Economists forecast U.S. growth to slow to 2.5 percent in the three months to June from 2.7 percent in the first quarter.
St. Louis Federal Reserve bank President James Bullard said he is worried about the risks the United States
Commodities
Oil
U.S. crude prices paused from the previous session’s strong gains and hovered at just above $78 a barrel, as traders stayed at the sidelines ahead of second quarter U.S. growth figures due later on Friday. NYMEX crude for September delivery slipped 16 cents to $78.20 a barrel by 0003 GMT. The contract rose for the first time in a week, gaining $1.37 a barrel to settle at $78.36 on
Thursday. Oil’s gains on Thursday came on the back of a weakening in the U.S. dollar against the euro, boosting demand for oil priced in dollars, and after European data showed eurozone economic sentiment has improved. Oil product stocks held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub fell across the board in the week ending Thursday, Dutch oil analyst Pieter Kulsen said on Thursday. Consultancy Oil Movements said seaborne oil exports by
OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will fall by 370,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to Aug. 14, adding another bullish element.
Gold
* Gold down but demand from jewellers cushion falls
* Coming Up: U.S. Real GDP Q2; 1230 GMT
Gold edged down on Friday after the dollar firmed against the euro, but trading was thin
as investors awaited the release of U.S. second quarter GDP data for clues on the direction of the economy. With worries about the debt crisis in Europe diminishing, gold could attract safe-haven buying as growth in the U.S. economy probably slowed in the second quarter on slower consumer spending. For a preview, Gold eased 65 cents to $1,167.40 an ounce by 0304
GMT, having risen on Thursday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that he is worried about the risks the United States could fall into a Japan-style quagmire of falling prices.
Bullion struck a lifetime high at $1,264.90 in June on worries the debt crisis in Europe was spreading and the U.S. economy was slowing. But a string of Europe’s largest firms issued surprisingly upbeat profit reports on Thursday, bolstering an abrupt renewal of investor confidence in the region after months of debt turmoil and fears for the euro. U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell $1.1 $1,167.3 an ounce after settling $8 higher. The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings were unchanged at 1,282.279 tonnes. The holdings hit a record at 1,320.436 tonnes
on June 29.
About the Author
Ava FX is proud to present Institutional Daily and Weekly News Analysis, by Chief Analyst Cliff Wachtel, CPA - one of the leading financial market analysts on major financial sites, such as seekingalpha.com, and listed on the Who’s Who of Financial Bloggers.
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